Fantasy Baseball (Dynasty) Prospect Ranks
An Introduction to the Methodology 

5/10/22 by N D (edited 12/16/22)

Reviewing ranks in April of 2022, we saw, and politely challenged some of the over and under reaches, but it became apparent that we the fan, the devoted manager/commissioner in fantasy baseball leagues (dynasty and/or keepers) were being left out of meaningful rankings input.  What we needed was a site that didn't simply regurgitate what others (BA, the Athletic or MLB.com) were already writing and that would be honest about strong biases (i.e. fanclubness) towards or against certain players (or teams).  What we needed was a ranking system that incorporated everything those "other guys" used (projections/tools/grades/minors stats/age and proximity to the show), but that also added advanced metrics such as +wRC, ISO, xFIP  -- metrics that at least one of these "other experts" explained to me as "not fantasy" relevant.  Really, they're not?

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Well, as many of you know wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) is one of the most important formulas for measuring a batter's current level of success. In fact, many experts hold that wRC+ is the hitting stat that every baseball fan should use for analyzing hitting ability, as it is an all encompassing tool for hitting performance.  No, its not a projection tool, nor does it gauge future ability or whether a player is toolsy or the ultimate "5 tools" player.  And, it doesn't count defensive utility/ability/or weigh premium positions.  So, if you're some of these folks who doesn't do their own homework other than looking up a MILB stat line or a scout's or ranking "guru's" blurb, wRC+ isn't for you.

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wRC+ is an offensive tool (perfect for fantasy baseball) that takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for important external factors -- like ballpark or era. It's adjusted so that a wRC+ of 100 is league average and 150 would be 50 percent above league average and 200 is 2x the league average..  A player who plays his home games at hitter-friendly park will have a lower wRC+ than a player who posts identical stats at pitcher-friendly one.

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The Math behind wRC+ is this:  (((wRAA per PA + league runs per PA) + (league runs per PA - ballpark factor x league runs per PA) / league wRC per plate appearance, not including pitchers)) x 100).

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wRC+ allows us to better compare players by taking away some of the factors that contribute to hits or outs, allowing us a better tool to assess leaguewide success.  How does that players stats compare to other minor leaguers?  On 5/10/22, we had 482 MiLB batters exceeding league average (>100, or 101 or above), 14 players at league average (100) and 369 players below league average (<99).

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So you may be asking, "if wRC+ is so useful, then why not just take wRC+ and just use that?" Well, a wRC+ after 100ABs will give you some good ideas of current performance/production, but its also within the context of the competition they're facing (A-, A+, AA, AAA, plus baseball is streaky).   Still, wRC+ is as useful as any tool, even when comparing wRC+ across all levels. 

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But, wRC+ is not the only stat, measurement or intangible to take into consideration, we also like ISO and "spd" (which never slumps, barring injury), we watch video of the top players, read scouting reports and make our own valuation, sometimes adding a feel, a hunch, hitch, or a motion (or lack of, as nothing turns me off about a player than a lackadasical approach to baseball, such as failing to run out contact or take the extra base). 

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And, you'll see from our SPOW ranks that we have developed a methodology for accounting for level of play as well as K rate.

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As for pitchers, xFIP is our friend.  Other stats can tell part of the picture but not all of it. This is particularly the case with ERA, which can be highly dependent on fielding (or a strike zone), HR/9 which can be dependent on the park (and wind speed/direction), batting average allowed on balls in play (BABIP) and left-on-base percentage (LOB%) both which can be dependent on fielding and the speed of the batter/runner.  So what we do like is pitcher controlled measurements: Swinging Strikes, K/9, Contact rate, hard hit rate.  And how do we find a way to measure all of those together?  Welcome Expected Independent Pitching (xFIP) which normalizes pitchers' HR/FB rate.  Although, again, some "experts" may not use these (supposedly non-fantasy relevant) metrics, the truth is that they are relevant to fantasy and should be used by me and you both in day to day fantasy and in our rankings. 

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Field Independent Pitching (FIP) [FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant] subtracts the defense (good or bad) and focuses on the pitches thrown (and hit).  xFIP takes FIP farther by "normalizing" the home run and fly ball rate (to increase or decrease the FIP).  xFIP gives us that 100 average scale like wRC+, which we also hope to utilize in the near future.  

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Another great metric that we should use is SIERA (which looks more at the batted ball profile as well as strikeout rate) but SIERA isn't widely available for minor leaguers.  But we'll be one of the first to rely on it, when we can get better data.

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For more information on these and other sabermetrics (developed by Bill James and our friends at SABRE) check out: 

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https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/era-fip-xfip/ and 

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https://www.fantraxhq.com/sabermetric-series-part-4-era-estimators/ 

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In the end, we're not going to buy into the hype that other "experts" do.  We're going look at the numbers (in comparison to other players), look at the tools, appreciate that sometimes promotions lead to drastic reduction in production (wRC+) (especially at the MLB level or sometimes the prospect goes on a streak and exceeds all expectations (e.g. Juan Yepez early on in the 2022) .  In these cases, we have to temper disappointment and/or enthusiasm.  The more ABs, the more seasons, the better our projections.

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Now, hitters and pitchers make adjustments from season to season. In fact, baseball is about adjustments, adjusting to the pitching and the pitching adjusting to the hitting, exposing weaknesses, and analyzing hit charts (resulting in shifts and extra outs: ask the Mariners Jarred Kelenic about that one).  So, just as batters and pitchers make adjustments, so too must our prospects lists.

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Be sure to check the updated ranks to account for "graduations" and progress reports and from time to time, our newly released Top 30s! 

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And, best of all, be sure to check out other great articles in our BLOG (Marvelous Musings)!

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