We all know that MLB Pipeline is the gold standard for rating the top 100 Prospects in Baseball. Sure, Baseball America is also up there. And for the fantasy gurus, it's Rotoworld, Prospects 1500, the Athletic, fangraphs, fantrax, and so many more!
We're not all going to get every prospect prediction right everytime. And, in fact, we may only be right some of the time (us included: see our, so far, failed example of the just demoted GrayRod). But those sites/gurus that are actually right more often than not, are obviously the ones that you (the fantasy and baseball enthusiast) should be following.
What is unique about MLB Pipeline is their unfettered access to minor league players, manages, staff, teams. Sure, the rest of us can go to games (or watch games via milb.tv, get (mostly) the same statistical information, and visit the same baseball sites everyone else does, but we can't always get the same inside scoop MLB Pipeline insiders get. So they should have a leg up, right? Not always. In fact, we had a look at past MLB Pipeline Top 100s in an article from last year and concluded that MLB Pipeline fails right along with the rest of us.
Although the MLB Top 100 isn't static (and doesn't just update when we're told there's an update), periodically we're given a big update notice and the last of those was the May one: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/ From that list, who are the biggest overshoots?
Well, it's hard to argue with MLB's Top 8. Sure, we have Jordan Walker at 10 (MLB at 1), we have Chourio at #26 (MLB has him at #2), we have Marcelo Mayer at #32 (MLB at #5), but all in all, solid choices.
Overshoot: Jordan Lawlar (#9 MLB, #80 DF)
Sure, we know, 6th pick of the 1st round, got off to a hot start in 2022, but there were signs last year that Lawlar's stats were cushioned in Low A where Jordan hit 9 HRs, batted .351/ 1.050 OPS; particularly since the promotion to A+ resulted in in a dip in Avg, power and wOBA, while the K rate increased to 25.4% (over 130 PAs). Despite the understandable dip, AZ was aggressive in promoting Jordan to AA where he went on to strike out 28.9% of the time while compiling just a 65wRC+ in 97 PAs.
Still, AZ stuck to their guns and assigned Jordan back to AA in 2023 (instead of A+) and the results this year haven't been good (wRC+83) -- even though they are a slight improvement over last year: the k rate is down to 27.9% and the wOBA is up to .313 (.294 last year). But these are still not great numbers. But we get it, Jordan Lawlar is just 20 so his wRC+ is great (some equation/fraction thing with his age, or something).
So what about other 20 and under players in AA?
Jordan Wood, 4 PAs
Owen Cassie, 161 PAs, 149 wRC+
Evan Carter, 186 PAs, 128 wRC+
Edgar Quero, 160 PAs, 126 wRC+
Jasson Dominguez, 179 PAs, 115 wRC+
Jackson Chourio, 187 PAs, 102 wRC+
David Calabrese, 161 PAs, 90 wRC+
Jordan Lawlar, 165 PAs, 83 wRC+ (#275 Overall Rank in AA)
And last year, in A+, what about comparable 19 y.o.'s to the stat lines Jordan compiled? Well, he certainly looked better in High A.
Jasson Dominguez, 145 wRC+
Gabriel Martinez, 141 wRC+
Jordan Lawlar, 140 wRC+ (#56 Overall Rank in A+)
Evan Carter, 136 wRC+
Blaze Jordan, 128 wRC+
Marcelo Mayer, 127 wRC+
Hao-Yu Lee, 125 wRC+
Jackson Chourio, 119 wRC+
Owen Cassie, 113 wRC+
But, does last year's A ball success translate to a top 10 rank for Jordan?
Jackson Merrill had a decent 2022 but not a top 20 decent 2022. For 2022, the wRC+ came in at 125 which placed Jackson #172 among Low A batters, But, Jackson was just 19, right? Well, even if we narrow the world to 19 y.o. players in Low A, that still puts Jackson as just the 29th best, based on batting stats. Yes, even then, not a top 20 player (by comparative statistics).
So MLB goes out on a limb while Jackson is promoted to A+ -- where things go from meh to extra meh (.310 wOBA and a 92 wRC+, good for #221 across A+ ball).
Even limiting the A+ world to age 20 and under, Jackson checks in at just #31 losing out to players like Benny Montgomery, Max Muncy, Roberto Campos, Blaze Jordan, Kahlil Watson and on and on.
There's simply no batting metric justifying a top 16 prospect rank for Jackson.
Overshoot: Marco Luciano (MLB #20, DF NR)
Marco Luciano in the MLB top 20 has been a constant for a while now, at least since the initial ranks of 2021, where, in August and September (of that year), MLB had moved Marco up to its #5 overall prospect.
So what gives? Well, you have to go back to 2018 and the international signings, where MLB ranked Marco #4.
From there, a good showing in rookie ball in 2019, and positive reviews during the Covid year (where MiLB was wiped out) put Marco in the top rankings conversation as an up and coming international SS prospect. And in 2021, when Marco had little trouble with Low A San Jose: .278 Avg/.929 OPS, 18 HRs, the hype train was a full go with ranking "experts" talking about Marco Luciano as the potential new number 1 overall prospect.
When the Giants did the right thing and promoted Marco to High A Eugene (in 2021), Marco struggled (.217 Avg, .578 OPS, 1HR in 129 ABs). It was bad. Real Bad. Like other prospects could hit, but Marco couldn't, type bad (and 54 K's in 129 ABs was a big part of the story).
There was talk of Marco not being able to hit sliders (or other offspeed offerings) and when opposing teams learned that, he stopped getting meaty fastballs down the middle.
If MLB wasn't concerned in 2021, it should have been in 2022 when Marco repeated AA, yet hit just .263/.798 OPS for a 126 wRC+. Look that was an improvement, no doubt. But that wRC+ 126 put Marco as the 318th ranked player in MiLB (statistically), and 17th among 20 y.o.'s in A+ alone.
So MLB Pipeline, you want to keep Marco in the top 100 (based on "projections")? Sure, go ahead. But get him out of your 20.
Termarr Johnson (MLB #22, DF NR)
Ok, ok, another super young player that we're not going to use actual stats on right?
After being drafted 4th overall in 2022, I've heard nothing but good things about Termarr. Great hit set, compact swing, great positive personality. Just a great kid, all good stuff.
But where it counts is in the hits column and there, Termarr has shown a respectable .273, .781 OPS for a wRC+ of 128 (152 PAs over 2 years). Like I said, that 128 wRC+ isn't bad, in fact, that puts Termarr as compiling the 143rd best batting line in Low A across 2021-2022 (100 min. PAs). But a 31.6% K rate, 2 HRs and just 5 SBs (over those 152 PAs) make Termarr about as unexciting as a fantasy prospect as you can imagine. And even then, what's saving his line from being below average is a 17.1% BB rate.
But Termarr is just 19, right? Well, even if we limit our Low A world to 19 and under, you're still looking at 28 MiLB players who hit better than Termarr in A- (even adding in Termarr's great walk rate).
So, it's hard to justify a top 25 ranking for a 19 y.o. prospect who isn't even in the top 25 among 19 y.o. prospects in Low A.
Overshoot: Mick Abel (MLB #38, DF NR)
After being drafted #15 overall in 2020, the 6'5" hard throwing righty has been all about projection. Problem though, has been the production. Sporting a career 4.13 ERA (across A, A+ and AA ball) and a 1.28 WHIP, Abel hasn't been terrible, but he hasn't been dominant either. Although the 228 K's in 183 IP are pretty good (29.2%), it's not elite, the 93 walks (1 every 2 innings) and 20 HR weren't great (#764 among pitchers with at least 180 IP, about 1 HR per 9.6 IP), nor was the expected ERA -- with an xFIP of 4.38, putting Mick Abel #558 among pitchers with 100IP+ from 2021-2023.
Now, to MLB Pipeline's defense, Fangraphs gives Abel a coveted 55 FV, though I'm not sure why since he's been pegged with only 2 plus pitches (which currently are only just above average: FB and curve) and below average command. There's top 200 promise here, but there are a lot of pitchers that have production and projection that should be far ahead of Abel, but MLB Pipeline swung and missed on (Ben Brown, Andrew Abbott, Nick Frasso, Bryan Woo, Connor Philips, Emmet Sheehan)
Overshoot: George Valera (MLB#41, DF NR)
We don't know what it is with MLB Pipeline and George Valera but his on the field play:
2022: .250 Avg, 816 OPS, 26% K rate, just a 3.7 Spd grade, and wRC+121
which was just #312 among MiLB batters; and
2023: .188 Avg / .614 OPS, but just 16 ABs
Career: .247 Avg / .831 OPS, .372 wOBA (5.1 Spd grade)
constantly runs counter to the projections that MLB Pipeline expects for Valera with a top 50 ranking.
There were more, but we were just running out of bandwith. Here are our honorable mentions.
Honorable Mention Overshoots: Druw Jones (MLB #13, DF#54)
Kevin Parada (MLB #28, DF#94)
Brandon Pfaadt (MLB#33, DF#167)
Edwin Arroyo (MLB #35, DF#138)
Cam Collier (MLB#56, DF#166)
Luisangel Acuna (MLB#58, DF NR)
Jacob Berry (MLB#71, DF NR)
Jace Jung (MLB#73, DF#171)
Kevin Alcantara (MLB#75, DF#168)
Ethan Salas (MLB #89, 16 y.o. DSL)
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