Ok, so last year we hit on Pittsburg's Jared Jones (our #77, dated 8/1/23, and #4 Pirates prospect at the same time MLB Pipeline had Jared at just #10 in the Pittsburg system: https://www.dynastyfocus.com/copy-of-2023-mlb-prospect-ranks-8-1-23-1 )
Ok, great, so now everyone knows how good Jared is and you won't find him available anywhere. With Jared gone, who do we have now?
With Daniel Espino hurt (again), we have to look for some other MiLB nuggets. From the list of "potential gems", Paul Skenes and Jackson Jobe are low lying fruit (after both routinely hit 100mph and created a buzz in the Spring). The low lying fruit is too easy and are thusly excluded here. Instead, we have do to a deeper dive.
The HOT:
1. Tink Hence (STL AA):
Well, let's start in the shallow end first. Maybe folks will say that MLB Pipeline's #59 player Tink Hence belongs on that low hanging fruit, "obvious starters to NA roster" group, but I'm not sure his 2023 AA stats would support that. In 12 starts last year at Springfield, Tink struggled to a 5.47 ERA with just 53 K's in 54. IP (along with a hit me sign evidenced by the .283 BAA). It was a not a good overall line and he was never in consideration of a MLB active roster spot coming into the year... But then came 2024 and over two starts, Tink has compiled a sublime 0.90 ERA with 11 K's over 10 IP with just 3 hits given up and only 1 walk. Pretty incredible. 3 to 5 more starts like this and he could make it to St. Louis (skipping Memphis). We watched the 4/9 start and Tink doesn't just possess an above average FB (which sat 95-98) but he has a great set of offs-peed pitches, from the slider to the curve to the change. And while MLB graded Tink's "control" at 50, what we saw was 70 grade stuff (and the 1 BB in 10 IP supports that, well -- at least so far this year).
2. Bubba Chandler (PIT AA): The next dive brings us to Bubba Chandler. Bubba didn't make Dynasty Focus' top 175 coming into the Spring, which is admittedly a glaring omission because he should be and because he was in our FA priority list (for upcoming, existing Dynasty drafts) ....ahead of guys like Graham Pauley who we were also high on coming into the season and who we saw break camp with the Padres:
In his sole AA start thus far in 2024 (for the Curve), Bubba went 3.1 IP giving up 2 ERs on 2 Hits and walked 2. In striking out 4, and relying mostly on a high octane FB, Bubba began the chilly opening day start at 95/96 but then stayed at 97 and even hit 98 during his brief stint. We liked the extension and location on the FB and just overall mound presence. Sure, 2 ERs in 3.1 AA IP wasn't what you'd hope for a MLB SP2/3, but Bubba wasn't hit hard and had a lot more in the tank when he was pulled due to pitch count.
Although he was outside the MLB Pipeline Top 100 (until the most recent update), Bubba is rising now at #86 overall with Rotowire ahead of the game with Bubba at #49 (in it's top 400). https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/prospects.php If you have an available NA slot and want pitching, we'd advise you to take a look at Bubba Chandler. Can you imagine Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler 1-2-3 for the Pirates? Won't be things of dreams soon ....
3. Ty Madden (DET, AA):
Reaching 97 in his April 6th start for the Sea Wolves, our #120 (3/19/24) ranked prospect, Madden looked good keeping the Senators off balance over 4 IP (0 hits, 5 K's), but then struggled in his next start on April 13th (4 IP, 3 ER, but 5 K's). Ty's best pitch is a slider, which helped him dominate the AA circuit in 2023. And frankly, we don't know what the Tigers were thinking in sending Ty back to AA after he pretty well aced 118 IP there last year (3.43 ERA, .233 BAA).
4. Mason Barnett (KC, AA):
We have to admit we had zero intel on Mason coming into 2024. Then we saw him at the Spring Breakout while mainly there to watch the Brew Crew's top prospects (Jackson Chourio, Jacob Misiorowski, Jeferson Quero, Tyler Black..). Mason came out as the Royals starter against what was almost a major league lineup and pretty well shut them down while lighting up the radar gun (97+) in the process. So we put the slightly undersized Mason (6'0") on our watch list and caught the April 12th AA game in which he rolled through the SA Mission lineup (except for 1 inning and a timely 2 out hit which scored two runs). Operating in the 93-96 range, Barnett mixed pitches and locations to match Robby Snelling inning for inning (5 IP, 2 ERs, 3 K's) . We like what we're seeing thus far, but think that Mason profiles more as a back end major league starter.
5. Ian Seymour (TB, AA): Like Mason, the Ray's Ian Seymour is really new to our watch list, but we've taken notice after 10 innings of 1 run ball at AA Montgomery to start the 2024 season. The Ray's #19 prospect's calling card is mixing speeds, mixing offerings and pinpointing his location -- and he has to because he has a fastball sitting at 90 mph. But, since even minor league batters can hit 96/97 nowadays, unless you're able to throw 98/99, you may be better off with movement and 90!
The Cold List:
Connor Phillips (CIN AAA): Connor sports an above average fastball and (what we thought was) a good sweeper which he used to dominate AA before a promotion to AAA (where we saw a K rate decline and maybe an indication of what would follow, which was a poor MLB debut). But coming into the 2024 season, we remained high on the potential for Connor (#23 in our top 175) which was sustained by his 1st AAA start of the year, on 4/2, where he averaged 96.5 on his FB and threw 6 IP, giving up 4 hits, 1 ER, walked 3 and struck out 3. That positive start was quickly forgotten when in start #2 (on 4/9), Connor got hammered for 8 ERs in 3.2 IP, giving up 7 hits, including 3 HR while walking 4 (though he did strike out 3). Connor had given up 1 HR in just 10 AAA starts last year (but then 3 HRs in one day, wow). With a FB that averaged 96.4 (in game 2) and a spin rate that was better than start #1 (with vertical and horizontal movement that was also similar), we just can't figure out what was the difference between the two starts. We've watched both, looked at the metrics and we don't know. But, the CSW% on Connor's FB in game 1 was 27% and game 2 was just 20%, but why? Were hitters just sitting on the FB? Was it the location? Was it the ABS system in start 2? Anyway, we're just not sure what happened but it could have been worse (as some of the game 2 outs were hit hard and deep).
So which game is the real Connor? Start 1 or Start 2? Let's see in start 3.
Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL AA & AAA): Atlanta's top 2 prospects have gotten off to about as bad a start as you can imagine. While we had liked Hurston more, his first two AA starts have resulted in a dismal 12.86 ERA (7 IP, 10 ERs, 15 hits allowed, 5 BB, 7 K's). You know it's bad when you give up 3 ERs in 4.1 IP and your ERA actually improves from your first start. But as bad as Waldrep was, Smith-Shawver was worse as his 18.00 ERA in 2 starts has taken him through just 3 IP (6 hits, 6 ER). Man ATL needs pitching with Strider down and these guys were supposed to be the guy, but their poor starts have us looking at Spencer Schwellenbach in High A.
Ricky Tiedemann (TOR, AAA): "Oh Ricky, 2023 Spring seems so so far away...." Remember when Ricky wowed Blue Jay fans with an electric fastball that had him pushing to make the big league team out of camp (and had us all thinking top 10 prospect)? Well that was last year. Fast forward past the injury shortened 2023 campaign at AA (which included just 32 IP there, where Ricky pitched to a 5.06 ERA but did strike out a whopping 58 batters while also allowing 48 hits+walks)....to 2024 where Ricky finds himself in Buffalo and where we find not just video but loads of great statcast help. Problem for Ricky is that none of it is helping him. From a 5.63 ERA to 16 hits+walks in 8 IP (i.e. 2.00 WHIP) to a decreased velocity FB, Ricky needs a hard re-set.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL, AA): No doubt one of our favorite players. But walks continue to pose a problem and just 7.1 IP over his first 2 AA starts (4.91 ERA). Plus, the velocity isn't what it was -- though maybe it's just a retool to try and focus more on control. MIL fans at ST thought Jacob had a chance to make the club out of AZ. We didn't, but now we're worried that when he does, it will be as a reliever.
Brock Porter (TEX, A+):
Like Jacob M. Brock is struggling with walks (issuing 7 in 5 IP, 2 starts). We watched Brock's 4/7 start and at 6'4" he's a tall and (despite his MLB Pipeline photo) lanky guy out there humming high fastballs (just doesn't seem that they're always going where he wants them to go) while mixing in a change and loopy slider (like a hard curve). There's potential here, and we think he'll be on the hot list soon...
Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS, AA): Man, our guys are struggling. AA Portland finally gave the rubber to Wikelman on April 9th and he went out and became Walkaman with 5 BBs in 2 IP which lead to 3 Runs and a 13.50 ERA. As excited as we were to see this start, we were utterly disappointed that it went South so fast.
Ok, stay tuned for our next update to include Chase Dollander, Hayden Birdsong, Cade Horton, Lyon Richardson, Dylan Lesko, River Ryan, Noble Meyer, Chayce McDermott and more!
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