Getting to work this morning I saw this rather "innocuous" tweet from the "NFL on CBS":
Hmm, I thought. Should I be rethinking Carson Wentz? Wait a minute, did they just pull that factoid out of the bin of irrelevance: the Number of QBs who threw 20+ TDs but fewer than 10 INTs over per season over the past 5 years? Does that make a QB a good one, a top flight one? I don't know. So let's dive in.
First of all, the 2:1 TD to INT ratio idea is good, I think. But 20 TDs a year in today's NFL isn't a lot, is it? On a 16 game schedule, that's 1.25 TDs a game -- a pretty pedestrian number. In 2021, 19 QBs threw for more than 20 TDs, 9 threw for 30 or more and 2 threw for 40 or more. TDs are points on the board (fantasy and real), while not all INTS are (though most leagues are -2, and I really like scoring that subtracts -6 for a pick six)
That said, Carson Wentz had a pretty good year in 2021: 3563 yards, 62.4% completion rate, 27 TDs 7 INT good for a 94.6 QB Rating.
Another QB had that type of year in 2020: 3563 yards, 62.8% 26 TDs 8 INTs for a 95.9 rating. Guess who that was?
Yeah, that guy, Baker Mayfield. Now, Baker isn't terrible, in fact, I like him. But, I'm not going to go out and make a case that he's in the top quarter, top third or even top 1/2 of NFL QBs.
And if Baker (whose 2020 numbers resemble Wentz' 2021 numbers with 1 less game played) isn't a top tier QB, how do Wentz' number stack up?
The passing yards (3563) by itself sure looked good. But that was just 18th best on the year (i.e. bottom half of the league). And the 209.6 yards passing per game ranked a dismal 26th. Not very inspiring. But...and there's always the but...the 27 TDs placed Carson 10th in the NFL (top 3rd) which was good, and only two QBs threw the same number or less INTs (Aaron Rodgers with 4 and Kirk Cousins with 7 -- of course, both those QBs also threw for more TDs: AROD with 37 and Cap'n Kirk with 33)
So what about passer rating? Maybe that'll help as that should take into account some of the other peripherals (completion percentage, yards per passing attempt, touchdown percentage, and interception percentage).
Carson Wentz ended 2021 with a 94.6 rating putting Carson at 13th best in the NFL: top 41% Ahhh, back to the middle-ish...
So, Carson's 2021 campaign was far better than most anyone predicted: me included, as I traded him away in Dynasty once the pre-season foot surgery news hit the air. How does a guy have foot surgery in the first week of August and return to start in Week 1 -- unless it was to remove a wart? I don't know and that may actually be a bigger story to me than the 20 TDs to <10 INTs stat that CBS has me on this morning..... Cryogenic, hyperbaric chamber maybe? Anyway, back to the stats....
For the good line of 2021 for Carson, maybe we should turn back a page to 2020.... In 2020, while Baker Mayfield was Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz was Drew Lock.
Yeah, almost identical. In 12 games, Carson threw for 2620 yards (218yds/gm), 16 TDs and 15 INTs with a completion percentage of 57.4% for a passer rating of 72.8 while Drew Lock (Seattle's QB of the future according to Coach Pete Carroll) threw for 2933 in 13 games (226yds/gm), 16 Tds, 15 INTs, for a pass rating of 75.4.
Those are two uninspiring lines.
So, let's get back to the CBS tweet which put Carson Wentz in rare company, throwing for 20+ TDS with less than 10 INTs over the last 5 years.
Three QBs with at least four 20/10 years (over the last 5 years): Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Drew Brees (pretty good company for Wentz). Four QBs who completed this feat in 3 of the preceding years: Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and 9 QBs have done it 2x.
(CBS appears to cut their number at 9 INTs or less which reduces the pool of qualifying number of QBs since a fairly significant number of QBs had 10 INTs: CBS came up with a list of 11, while I came up with 16)
In 2021, 7 QBs threw for 20+ TDs and 10 or less INTS . That's a small pool, just 20% or so of QBs to accomplish the 20/10 feat, which is top tier good. And here are the TD numbers for those other 6 QBs: 37 (Dak), 37 (AROD), 33 (Cousins), [27, Carson], 25 (Russell Wilson, 14 gms), 24 (Kyler Murray, 14 gms), 22 (Big Ben).
In 2020, 12 QBs exceeded the 20/10 mark (but not Carson). In 2019, 12 did so (including Carson with, incredibly, the same 27/7 line from 2021). In 2018, 8 QBs achieved this feat (including Carson who again threw for just 7 INTs) and same in 2017, 8 QBs again (with Carson again throwing exactly 7 INTS on the year: What is it with this guy and 7 INTS...somebody needs to be making this bet in Vegas)
But is the 20/10 TD/INT thing even a big deal? I mean, you have Patrick Mahomes throwing for 50 TDs in 2018 but missing our cutoff due to the 12 INTS. But yet, his 2018 TD-INT ratio is better than Carson's (4.17 to 3.86). Maybe the TD-INT ratio is a better measurement, so let's look at that. Among active QBs, Carson's TD to INT ratio (2.46) is actually in pretty good territory: 7th, just ahead of Kirk Cousins at 8th.
BUT (again with the "but").....the Passer Rating of 90.1 puts Carson 16th on the list (among active QBs), behind Ryan Tannehill and Jared Goff but ahead of players like Baker Mayfield and Marcus Mariota -- and, in other words, back in the middle.
But, more important than the artificial 20/10 cutoff may be that 2/1+ TD ratio with at least 30 TD passes (i.e. approx 2 per game)....
Here is our list of QBs who threw at least 30 TD passes per season over the past 5 years with less than half as many INTS (which seems to me to be fairly elite as they're positively impacting the game and not just game managing it).
4 QBs accomplished this feat 3x, while 5 more did so 2x
Carson Wentz managed it once, in 2017 (but hasn't broken 30 TDs since)
3x:
Tom Brady (43/12, 40/12, 32/8)
Pat Mahomes (37/13, 38/6, 50/12)
Russell Wilson 31/5, 35/7, 34/11)
Kirk Cousins 33/7, 35/13, 30/10)
2x:
Aaron Rodgers (37/4, 48/5)
Josh Allen (36/15, 37/10)
Dak Prescott (37/10, 30/11)
Justin Herbert (38/15, 31/10)
Big Ben (33/10, 34/16)
1x:
Matt Stafford (41/17)
Joe Burrow (34/14)
Drew Brees (32/5)
Lamar Jackson (36/9)
Deshaun Watson (33/7)
Ryan Tannehill (33/7)
Philip Rivers (32/12)
Andrew Luck (39/5)
Matt Ryan (35/7)
Jared Goff (32/12)
Carson Wentz (33/7) (2017, 14 games)
So, did we accomplish anything by looking at CBS tweet? I'm not sure. Carson Wentz had a good 2021 (and a great 2017). In 2021, he was 9th in QBR:
But, among active QBs (excluding non-active QBs below and Teddy B), Carson Wentz' career passer rating is 14th. Again, a middle tier.
So, in the end, I'm not sure that the 20/10 CBS thing did anything other than to confirm that Wentz is middle tier (safe range) starting QB type, a high Floor, low ceiling kind of guy. Can you win championships (fantasy or real) with that? Probably not, but Philly did get Carson's one elite year (2017), maybe you will too.
And now, back to my day job....Oh wait, oh no, not another NFL on CBS tweet.....
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