Coming out of Mississippi State, Dak Prescott was an exciting prospect but not necessarily highly touted (getting drafted in the 4th round to sit behind All-Star Tony Romo). Dak wasn't known as an elite passer in college, but rather an elite playmaker (a guy who was almost unstoppable, especially when the game was on the line). In fact, Prescott was one of only four players in FBS history to throw for 70 TDs and run for 40. And, despite playing in the tough SEC, at one point Dak had Mississippi State at #1 in the polls!
Then came Romo's injury and Dak's chance....and he didn't disappoint. He seized the reigns and never looked back, leading the Cowboys to an NFC-best 13-3 record and earning the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Since then? Well, Prescott is only 53-32 as a starter since entering the league in 2017. In his first four years, Dak's record was 40-24 (.625). By the way, a certain other Dallas QB -- a guy by the name of Troy Aikman was just 27-27 (.500) over his first four years.
Of course, it's not just the record, but Dak has put up some pretty big numbers in those years. Over Dak's first three years, Dak threw for 85 TDs, 25 INTs, and 11,820 passing yards. That's pretty similar to another pretty good QB: Russell Wilson: 83 TDs, 26 INTs, and 11,827 passing yards. One big difference between Dak and Russ? Seattle had a top defense during those years.
In 2020, Dak became the first player in NFL history to pass for at least 450 yards in three straight games, leading the NFL in yards before breaking his ankle in Week 5, resulting in him missing the year.
Just last year (2021), coming off the ankle injury, Prescott had the fourth-most passing touchdowns (37), while ranking fourth in the NFL in completion percentage (68.8%) (behind only Burrow, Rodgers, Murray). Dak's NFL Next Gen Stats completion percentage are well above average and his number of big-time throws (as measured by Pro Football Focus) are both in the top 10.
And, in a 2022 pre-season poll of NFL executives
(i.e. the top brass in the NFL front offices), Prescott was ranked 10th out of all QBs (though dropping slightly from #7 in 2021). Why is he ranked so high? It's consistency. You are going to consistently get good years from Dak. Will they be great? No, maybe not great, but consistently good.
Over the last 10 years, 46-quarterbacks have posted what is viewed as elite status (based on statistics and not opinion). The typical quarterback in that 46 QB group completes 66.5 percent of his passes for 276 yards per game, averaging eight yards per attempt with a 6.4 percent touchdown rate and a 1.7 percent interception rate with 2.4 fourth-quarter comebacks per season and sacked just 1.9 times per game.
Last season, Prescott exceeded the "elite" completion percentage (with 68.8%) and the elite yards per game. He had a 1.7 percent interception rate and a 6.2 percent touchdown rate, and he was sacked only 1.9 times per game. Prescott’s 7.5 yards per attempt in 2020 was the 10th-best in the league. Overall, Dak threw for 4,449 yards and 37 TDs (resulting in 24.4 Fantasy Pts/G)
That's pretty darn good.
All-time, Prescott ranks fifth in career passer rating (tied with Drew Brees with 98.7), fourth in career pass interception percentage with only 1.7%, and fifth all-time in completion percentage with 66.6%. To go along with that, since 2016, he ranks eighth in total passing yards, 11th in yards per game, and 10th in passing touchdowns while missing 11 games in the time span. Prescott has also finished top five in QBR in three of his five full seasons and top 11 in four of the five.
"Advanced stats" also support Prescott’s performance. In 2021, he ranked first in red zone accuracy rating, fifth in true passer rating, 10th in expected points added, eighth in deep ball accuracy rating, second in red zone completion percentage, and first in touchdown passes versus the blitz.
Those are some really good metrics.
Only playing 85 games since 2016, Dak ranks fourth in wins, being bested by only by Tom Brady (71 wins in 93 games), Aaron Rodgers (59 wins in 87 games), and Russell Wilson (58 wins in 94 games). Um, folks, the guy is a winner.
So why the hate? The hate is because a) You're an Eagle's fan; or b) Dak has gone just 1-3 in the playoffs.
Look, no one is saying Dak Prescott is elite. But is a 1-3 playoff record the defining stat in a career full of top 10 stats? What about other elite, real elite, Hall of Fame QBs who had less than stellar playoff W/L records? Were their careers poo-pooed by the lack of playoff wins? Let's see...
YA Tittle went 0-4 in the playoffs. SammyBaugh, 0-1. Sonny Jurgenson, 1-3 Warren Moon, 3-4. Dan Fouts, 3-4 George Blanda, 3-4. And the great Dan Marino? 8-10
Not everyone can win the Super Bowl, and not every Super Bowl winning QB is elite (um, Trent Dilfer folks). Let's not measure a QB's greatness by the playoff record alone. The lack of an offensive line and lack of an elite defense can have a major impact, especially against playoff teams.
Dak Prescott is a top 10 QB (whether you measure his career marks or look to last year). But, if he wants to gain elite status in the minds of many talking heads, he needs to win more playoff games -- a super bowl would do it.
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