Before getting to today's post, it can't be said enough how grateful I am (and millions of Americans are) for the sacrifices paid by brave Americans to defend our freedoms throughout the globe and throughout history. Those sacrifices, and the ultimate sacrifice, provide(d) Americans the safety and security (that we probably all too often take for granted) that in turn allows us to focus our attention (not on our day to day survivability) but on building a future for our families, while enjoying the finer things in life....including games, sports and fantasy
On to baseball....
Nelson Velasquez
After working with the Cubs coaches, Nelson tweaked his swing (and/or mechanics) helping him get off to a scorching hot start in AA this year with the Tenn Smokies, posting a BA of .288, an OPS of 1.09, 9 HRS and 5 steals. But, there was one catch: Strikeouts. 33 of them in 94 Plate Appearances (a 35% K rate).
When Nelson was promoted to AAA IOWA (which was the right thing by the Cubs), his numbers dropped significantly, to the tune of a .214 AVG and .705 OPS, 3 HRs (plus 4/6 in SBs). The culprit? Well, more of the same, 29 K's in 79 Plate Appearances (a 36.7% clip). And it could have been worse, as Nelson's 3 hit (7 RBI) night on 5/28 brought his average up from .182 to .214.
Whether its .182 or .214, we still have a major problem and that's the K rate. The K rate means less balls in play and less a chance for those bloop hits, hits against shifts, soft liners, gappers, bad hops, whatever. The less balls in play means a lower average (and this, despite a very good MiLB Home Run rate in 2022 of 1 HR per 14.42 ABs). While that rate could (theoretically) produce 40-42 HRs over 600 ABs, a K rate of 36.7% in AAA would seemingly increase to 42-52% in the majors, further decreasing the average and HR rate. And if that's the case, you may have a .200 hitting outfielder who has unproductive ABs except for the 25-30 HRs he could hit if given 600 ABs. Now, some guys make a major league career out of that (as long as they can play good defense). And Nelson is said to have a good arm and can play average to above average defense. So, if he can keep his average over .200 and keep that 25-30 HR pace, maybe we have another Mike Yastrzemski, Robbie Grossman type offensive profile and maybe that's worth the flier.
My investment: 1 dynasty league share (of 11 total leagues)
2. Ethan Small
Ethan Small has simply dominated the minors. In 3 years, Ethan has compiled a sparkling 1.78 ERA over 136.2 IP with an astounding 177Ks (11.7 K/9).
While the K rate and ERA are stuff of minor league legends, Ethan hasn't compiled those stats with an overpowering fastball which according to Fangraphs sits in the 91-94 range but can touch 96. Instead, Ethan's best pitch is his changeup which Fangraphs grades at a 60. That has me thinking of the Dodgers Ryan Pepiot as a comparator, though Ryan's Changeup is a 70 grade and his FB is a 55-60 grade. But maybe he's Minnesota's Joe Ryan (a league average or below fastball but a wipeout second pitch, which for Ryan is his slider).
Fangraphs has Ethan's xFIP at 3.72 (72nd among MiLB qualified pitchers) which means that that 1.78 ERA ought to be a lot higher, and will be a lot higher in the majors.
So what to expect of Ethan's debut? Well, he's been stretched out to 6 IPs in a game and could go that long, but with a two pitch combination, I'm not sure Ethan will be able to make it through too many major lineups without getting hit pretty hard. In order for Ethan to stick as a starter, he's going to have to develop his curve or slider and rely on it more. Long term, I'm thinking an SP5 with a 4.00-5.00 ERA range that could stick in a rotation as long as he can develop that third pitch.
My investment: 1 re-draft share (of 11 total leagues)
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