MLB Pipeline's Top 100 just dropped and, like you, we were super excited to see what changes were made since the final update of 2023. And, as always, there were some obvious headliners, some other great choices, but also, a few suspect ones.
Before we delve in, let us say that we love MLB Pipeline's Top 100 (and the folks behind it). But, that doesn't mean that it's not fair game to "evaluate" (um, even criticize) some of the selections. And, I'm sure they have lots of debates over at MLB Pipeline HQ and they have to manage some strong voices favoring certain prospects (that in turn drive some of the evaluations).
And, of course, we all have to remember that this isn't an exact science (though, there there can be some serious deep data dive behind certain ranks, like ours). Anyway, enough of that, let's get into it.
The Top 5: 1. Jackson Holliday, 2. Jackson Chourio, 3. Paul Skenes, 4. Junior Caminero, 5. Evan Carter
It's a strong list and hard to argue that it's not the right one. We have three of those prospects in our top 5 (Holliday, Caminero, Carter) plus Paul Skenes at 6 and Jackson Chourio at 7. So no issue there.
The Top 10: 6. Wyatt Langford, 7. Dylan Crews, 8. Ethan Salas, 9. Colson Montgomery, 10. Walker Jenkins.
We have Dylan Crews at 10 and Wyatt Langford and Walker Jenkins not far behind. The problem for us here is Ethan Salas (more on Colson Montgomery in a moment).
Ethan Salas is a promising young prospect at 17.8 years old who not only held his own at Low A Lake Elsinore but hit 22% better than the average Single A player (122 wRC+). Definitely impressive. An .837 OPS, 25.9% K rate (220 PAs), all good stuff. But top 10 impressive? We, like everyone else, think highly of Ethan Salas. But, at what point do you start over-ranking him simply because of how young he is? While Jackson Chourio seemed to be the most recent example of far too excited exuberance over an 18 year old phenom succeeding in professional baseball, Chourio may just work out (and MLB Pipeline may have gotten it right). But must we do this every time we have some 17 or 18 year old hitting for average in the minors?
It wasn't long ago that Jasson Dominguez (now #41, MLB Top#100) was being ranked that high (and we remember him going #1 across Dynasty Rookie drafts, like he was this year's Dylan Crews). It wasn't Jasson's fault, but he's not Dylan Crews -- though he stands a decent chance of being a pretty good MLB, but a top 10 wasn't ever warranted (we currently have him at #54).
Between 2006 and 2023, not many guys played Class A ball at age 17 -- in fact, the number is just 23. From that list, there are a bunch of names you won't recognize, but the most important take away is that Ethan Salas was not the best of that list as that title would go to Fernando Martinez. Over 211 PA's in 2006, at age 17 in Class A, Fernando Martinez returned a 150wRC+, .894 OPS with 5 HRs and 7 SBs. While Fernando advanced quickly through the minors, the Fernando Martinez story didn't end well (310 career MLB PAs, 70wRC+, 2013 BALCO suspension) -- but he was a major leaguer and did debut in 2009 at age 20 (which is impressive).
And, there was another 17 y.o. Padre that preceded Ethan in Class A (in 2022) -- Samuel Zavala. Over 141 PA's, you could argue that Zavala (7 HRs, 5 SBs, .863 OPS) hit better than Ethan (9 HRs, 5 SBs, .837 OPS). And yet, unlike Ethan, SD chose to keep Zavala at Class A for his age 18 year and Zavala went bonkers (which has to help the psyche): 14 HRs, 20 SBs, 140 wRC+ over 459 PAs. Also unlike Ethan, you won't find Zavala in the top 10, top 25, top 50 or even top 100. Hmm.
Now, Ethan did hit better than major leaguers Elvis Andrus, Aldaberto Mondesi and Wilmer Flores when they were 17 and playing A ball. But are those guys top 10 type prospects?
There was another name from the age 17 list in A ball that you will definitely recognize, a certain Mike Trout, but he didn't have enough PA's to warrant inferences in our group here. But, at age 18, in a repeat of Class A, Trout returned a 172 wRC+. And, certainly a star was born (but LAA already knew that).
Unfortunately for Ethan, he isn't going to get the chance to improve on his Class A numbers (and have us compare him to Trout's and Zavala's successes there at age 18) as San Diego aggressively promoted Ethan to A+ where he batted just .200/.472 OPS over 37 PAs for a 35 wRC+. While the promotion to A+ was probably fine, the jump to AA (perhaps to just get some additional PA's) wasn't. Hopefully the Padres start Ethan in A+ and let him try and hit his way to a promotion. But for now, we pump the breaks with him at #67 --- Though we will draft him high in our Yahoo Dynasty Leagues knowing that he'll give us a great return when we trade him before ST games begin.
As for Colson Montgomery, he checks in at #51 for us but at #22 according to FanGraphs stats with a 155 wRC+ (min. 250 PAs). While he's not top 10 material, our ranks admittedly have Colson too low. A better spot for Colson is in the mid 30s.
Top 20. Our biggest call-outs in this group are #12 Jackson Merrill, #18 Brooks Lee, #20 Carson Williams.
We have Jackson Merrill at #84. Why the 72 spot disparity here? Jackson hit well in A ball in 2022 at age 19: 125 wRC+, 219 PAs, 5 HRs, 10 SBs. But even then, it was not top 20 well (in fact, that line came in at #127, among just Class A players, with 19 age 19 or younger players hitting better). Then in 2023, as the follow up at age 20, Jackson hit for a respectable Avg (.280) but a fairly pedestrian OPS (.762), ISO (.165) and wRC+ (111). With average speed and below average defensive chops for a SS, and really just ok numbers, how do we justify to 20? We're not seeing it, certainly not yet.
Brooks Lee. We were high on Brooks Lee out of college and felt that was justified when he had no problem with A+ ball in year 1. But year 2 wasn't as promising. Things started ok at AA Wichita: .292 Avg/.841 OPS but just a 120 wRC+ (remember, that's good, approx 20% better than the avg Minor Leaguer) but we're talking Top 20 prospects here, not the top 200. The promotion to AAA really sank the ship as Brooks really struggled over 168 PAs with a 78 wRC+, .732 OPS. Sure, he's just 22, but after not knocking AA out of the park and then the red flags in AAA. We're dialing it back (ranking Brooks at #96). Brooks doesn't have great speed or tremendous power, but has an above average hit tool (save the 2023 AAA experience). Yeah, he'll make MLB, but don't count on star power.
Top 50. #23 Kyle Harrison. #34 Rhett Lowder. #35 Jeferson Quero. #36 Robby Snelling. #39 Marco Luciano. #50 Noah Schultz
Kyle Harrison made his MLB debut in 2023 (34.2 IP) relying on 3 pitches, including a FB that averaged just 93.6, while posting a 4.15 ERA. But, what was troubling was a 38.1% hard hit rate and an expected ERA of 4.55. We weren't impressed. Kyle shouldn't be on anyone's current top 100. While a SP doesn't have to throw 98 to make our list, he'd better have a ton of movement, control and speed changes to keep hitters off balance -- we don't think Kyle has it.
Rhett Lowder didn't make his professional debut in 2023 so the jury is still out. But Rhett doesn't possess overpowering stuff. In fact, his best traits are the changeup and throwing strikes. While Rhett mixes it up well, a lot of those strikes are going to leave minor league parks. Rhett doesn't make out top 200 at the moment and we're suprised to see him at #34.
Jeferson Quero is a really good better defensive catcher...but...can he hit enough to be fantasy relevant? Not so far. The 107 wRC+ .779 OPS line at AA Biloxi in 2023 was minor league average (but good for a 20 y.o.). But is it enough for us to get excited about? .179 ISO, 3.6 Spd has us tempering expectations so much that Jeferson didn't make our top 200 (though he probably should have, in the 160-200 range).
Robby Snelling comes in at #148 for us. We felt that his results are better than his pure stuff, though he does have a great curve. But where we are second guessing ourselves (and acknowleding too low a rank by us) is with the 3.07 FIP Robby returned in 2023, 7th best among minor league hurlers with 100+ IP.
Marco Luciano. Going back, the highest we found Marco on MLB's ranks was #9, but we almost swear he came in at #1 on one of the updated Pipeline ranks. Well, since then he's been steadily dropping and now finds himself at a still far too high #39. Like Jasson Dominguez, Marco Luciano was a highly acclaimed international signee. And when he hit .278/.929 OPS with 18 HRs with Class A San Jose, the rankings world proclaimed him the next best thing. Then came High A Eugene and this thing called a slider, and a resulting fall from grace.
Among minor leaguers with 1000 PAs over the past 3 years, you'll find Marco with a 114 wRC+ coming in at #168. That puts him in company with Tyler Soderstrom, Orelvis Martinez, Seth Beer, Wenceel Perez, Eguy Rosario, Bo Naylor, Zach Deloach (to name a few). Those are good prospects/beginning major leaguers, but not elite. If the top 100 = a player that has the change to be a major leaguer then putting Marco at #35 is fine. But the top 50 prospects should not only be surefire major leaguers, but players with a real good chance to be All-stars. Marco Luciano is not that guy and finds himself at #106 in our ranks.
#50 Noah Schultz. The 6'9" lefty can sling it with an above average FB and a + + slider. After strong results in A ball, Noah came in at just #140 in our ranks; and that's on us, as we have him far too low.
Top 50-100. #73 James Triantos, #78 Druw Jones, #82 Anthony Solometo, #91 Brayan Rocchio, #93 Bubba Chandler.
In 2023, James didn't make any list of top minor league batters (across all classes), in fact, he didn't make the top 200 and not even the top 300 (posting a 115 wRC+, .755 OPS). But he was just 20. And, if we limit the comparison to High A, James came in at #54 among A+ players (min 300 PAs). But what wasn't as inspiring was a .753 OPS and .105 ISO. Triantos falls outside our top 200.
Druw Jones has never lived up to the hype and continues to drop across all ranks (we have him at #172). Jones only able to muster 173 PAs in 2023 and the results were dismal (92 wRC+). But, he's just 20 and a strong 2024 could put him back in our top 100 radar. For now, there isn't anything to justify a top 80 rank.
Anthony Solometo is a "stretch" at #82 (and doesn't make our top 200), becuase althogh we all like the 6'5" frame, a FB and slider a tick above average that didn't really fool AA hitters doesn't have us in the thrilled camp. But a 3.46 FIP and 9.63 K/9 have Solometo in the Quinn Priester realm (if you're high on Quinn Priester).
Brayan Rocchio has long been over-rated. Coming in at #202 in our ranks, a 101 AAA wRC+ didn't move us in 2023. With the exception of a strong AA campaign in 2021, Brayan hasn't really impressed in the minors and owns a 108 career wRC+ (excluding rookie ball). That career wRC+ puts him in Cal Mitchell terriroty.
Another Pirates minor league hurler absent from our top 200 is Bubba Chandler. Bubba struggled in High A with a 4.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 24 starts. Although he posseses a plus FB, he relies on it too much. Bubba will start at AA in 2024 and we'll obviously see what happens.
And for the Omissions part, @MLBPipeline swung and missed on these prospects:
Ben Rice outhit Austin Wells who just happens to be the Yanks catcher in waiting (not to mention Pipeline's #7 NYY prospect). But then again, Rice outhit just about everyone else (everyone with at least 300 ABs). With an overall wRC+ of 183, Ben Rice put up the best MiLB year batting .324 / 1.048 OPS, .291 ISO, 5.4 Spd, .462 wOBA including .327 at AA 16 HRs and 7 SBs for a wRC+ of 182 (min 200 ABs). Batting from the left side, Ben is a catcher 1st (and a first basemen 2nd) which should help a quick ascent to the bigs (as long as he is able to hit AAA pitching in 2024).
The 6'3" Lazaro Montes was literally Seattle's biggest international signing in 2021 (and big also meant standing taller than another pretty big guy: Nelson Cruz). So with all the hype, what was Lazaro going to do in his first taste of pro ball in the DSL? How about 10 HRs in 176 ABs, an OPS of 1.007 and a wRC+ of 162 (good for 8th in MiLB
in 2022). That type of firepower put Lazaro on everyone's radar. But, a less than ideal K rate was cause for concern. In 2023, Lazaro was promoted to the ACL then A ball. In Class A, across 156 PAs, Lazaro hit .321 with 7 HRs for a .994 OPS and 165 wRC+. Lazaro walks a lot (13.5% in A) and worked on reducing the K rate to 25%. Lazaro should start 2024 at High A Everett where we're excited to see him in person.
Although Wikelman carried a poor 5.14 ERA in A+, it was deceptively so as the 3.56 FIP gave us a better picture (though BBs raised his WHIP). And, Wikelman managed to strike out an incredible 105 batters in 63 IP. That missing bats ability carried Wikelman through 10 strong AA starts (48.1 IP -- 2.42 ERA). With a plus fastball, and an above average curve and change, Wikelman sneaks into our top 25 on a 13.58 K/9 rate -- best in MiLB (min. 100 IP).
Rotowire really likes Thomas Saggese and we can't blame them. Over the past 2 seasons (across A,AA, AAA), Thomas hit .320/.950 OPS (with good power and speed: .243 ISO/6.6 Spd) returning the 3rd best wRC+ (144) among players with 500+ PAs. That's pretty impressive -- as were the 26 HRs and 12 SBs in 2023 (all while maintaining a K rate under 25% (23%).
Blake Dunn has been good, real good - across three years and four levels. In 2022, the former 15th rounder hit .290 / .963 OPS with 4 HRs and 18 SBs (across 127 Class A PAs), good for a 179 wRC+. in 2023, to follow that up, the bearded wonder dominated High A to the tune of .276 / .871 OPS, 8 HRs, 19 SBs (202 PAs) for a 149 wRC+. Not too bad, but Blake was a little old for A+ ball, so CIN promoted him to AA Chatanooga where, guess what? He also mashed: .332 Avg/ .989 OPS, 15 HRs, 35 Steals (357 PAs). Maybe "mash" isn't the right way to describe it and maybe its more like "wow, SPOW" as the 158 career wRC+, 8.7 Spd grade and .204 ISO have us excited about the Speed/Power Combo we love. Look for Blake in Louisville's lineup in 2024. And yes, we're the first to have Blake in any top 100!
Our #32. Joe Boyle SP OAK 23.11 AA 2024 (MLB NR/CIN#28/OAK#20 | Roto NR/#152)
We liked Boyle even before he was traded to Oakland where he caught everyone's attention with his big league debut (3 starts, 16 IP, 15 K's 1.69 ERA, 2-0). The 6'7" Joe Boyle and his 3.29 career ERA over 237.2 IP is pretty good, but what pops is the 362 K's. With a 12.89 K/9 rate in 2023, Boyle was 4th in MiLB (100+ IP). That K rate is based on some serious gas (which averaged 97.8 in MLB). The only hiccup for big Joe has been an unsustainable walk rate (7.13 BB/9) which was 3rd worst in MiLB in 2023 - 100+ IP. That walk rate had folks talking about future "reliever" stuff, but both we and the Athletics believed that Joe was a frontline starter, and he is! And look what the A's have? Mason Miller and Joe Boyle back-to-back, wow, good luck facing that.
Our #34 Joey Loperfido 1B/OF HOU 24.8 AAA 2024 (MLB NR/HOU#16 | Roto NR/#135)
How can such a big guy (6'3" 220) be so good at stealing bases? We don't know but 32 bags was pretty good in 2022, especially when it comes with a .438 wOBA and an wRC+ of 166 (A+ ball) So what could Joey do in 2023? Well, AA was great: a .296 Avg, .940 OPS, 19 HRs and 20 SBs over 364 PAs equating to a 143 AA wRC+ putting Joey into the top 10 AA wRC+ (min. 300 PAs). That success lead to a promotion to AAA in 2023 where Joey really struggled in all facets over 138 PAs. But, we're sure he'll rebound and be back on track in 2024.
Another far too low/non-existent rank from MLB Pipeine, DeLuca stormed into AAA (and passed his LAD teammate Pages) by hitting the daylights out of AA pitching: .279 Avg / .970 OPS, 8 2Bs, 10 HRs, 9 SBs for a wRC+ of 149. Deluca has good speed and strikes out just 17.5% of the time, and hit well enough at AAA (.315 Avg/.923 OPS, 4 HRs, 3 SBs, over 80 PAs) to earn a promotion to the bigs (where he amassed 45 PAs for a 102 wRC+ in an injury shortened campaign). TBR wasn't waiting on MLB Pipeline's report as, like us, they knew DeLuca is something special.
Our #36 Kyle Hurt SP LAD 25.2 AA 2023 (MLB NR/LAD#26/LAD#11 | Roto #144)
The MiLB leader in K/9 (14.87) in 2023 was this guy, Kyle Hurt. How does he do it? He brings the Hurt by pounding the strike zone with an above average Fastball (95.7 mph) paired with an above average changeup. We've watched Kyle on a number of occasions in 2023 and came away impressed each time. He's a big guy (6'3", 240) who commands the mound and says I'm coming right at you! And though, on May 25th, Kyle sported an incredible 1.33 ERA, there were hiccups after as the AA ERA ballooned to 4.15 as Kyle gave up runs in each of his last 10 starts (none of which has lasted more than 5 IP). But he continues to mow down batters at a historic rate -- 110 in 65 IP. LAD thought a change of scenery would help and promoted Kyle to AAA. And the Dodgers were right as Kyle pitched 27.0 AAA innings to a 3.33 ERA, 42 K's (1.11 WHIP). Although we're convinced Kyle is a starter, last year we predicted a MLB debut as a reliever, and we were right. While we hoped LAD could find room in the rotation, with the recent signings and trades, it doesn't look like 2024 will give Kyle that chance -- barring injury.
Though the promotion to AA came with some knocks, it's still hard to ignore what the 6'4" 6th rounder did on the year (3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 149 K's in 100.2 IP) with a K rate that placed him 2nd among MiLB hurlers with at least 100 IP in 2023. Pretty impressive.
Our #39 Matt Mervis 1B CHC 25.9 AAA 2023 (MLB NR/CHC#5/CHC#13 | Roto NR/#31/#38/#57/#103/#232)
After a stellar 2022 (5th in wRAA [41.6] and 15th in wRC+ [156]), it was a surprise to see CHC start Matt in the minors in 2023. Undetterred, Matt batted .286 with 6 HRs for a .962 OPS, which, coupled with the Cubs lack of production at 1B and DH, led to a MLB promotion on 5/5 (where Mervis Time struggled to a .167 Avg / .531 OPS with 1 HR over 90 PAs and a whopping 37.2% K rate). Returning to AAA, Matt hit 22 HRs in 441 PAs with a .282 Avg/.932 OPS for a 132 wRC+. Sure, that's not the year that Mervis had in 2022, but it was still very good ("good" for 7th best in AAA, min 400 PAs).
While Wade doesn't hit for power and doesn't steal a lot of bases, he can still hit (.354 AAA avg) and get on base (.465 OBP, AAA). And with a career 165 wRC+, 2023 was no fluke. In fact, Wade has put together the 7th best MiLB batting portfolio for the past 13 years (min. 450 PAs). The names on that list? (Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Brandon Belt, Eric Hosmer, Wily Mo Pena) While Wade's minor league numbers didn't translate into immediate MLB success (as Wade was a bit overmatched in the bigs with 25 K's in 56 ABs) it was just a small sample. And, at just 23, we think he can make it, and be a plus major league outfielder. As of now, he reminds us of the Jay's Davis Schneider, and still a long way to go to remind us of another Wade...
This 6'0" 230 lb'er can hit the ball a long way, launching 33 of those 4 bag varieties in 454 PAs in 2023 (including the most hit in A+ (26), while holding down a .290 Avg in High A (157 wRC+, which was 2nd best among players with 300+ PAs). The K rate (27% in A+) still needs to come down but a .624 SLG% can also help us overlook that!
Our #49 (↓) Jacob Hurtubise OF CIN 26.1 AAA (MLB NR | Roto NR)
Hurtawho? Yes, you Hurt right....Hurtubise is fast (100 SBs in 284 minor league games and a 9.0 Spd grade) and a solid all-around fantasy contributor (163 wRC+ across 455 PAs in AA and AAA in 2023, which was 2nd best among players with 400+ PAs). But up to 2023, Jacob was missing the power as part of his game. That changed in 2023 with a .492 SLG % in AA and a .460 SLG % in AAA (11 2Bs/10 3Bs/7HRs over 455 PAs). Jacob isn't going to hit 20 HRs, he may not hit 10. But, he's going to have some pop and steal you 50 bases while playing all three OF positions. And, best of all, he's probably available on the wire since he's not even in the MLB Cincy Top 30!
With a career 123 wRC+ maybe it would appear to defy our logic to have Florial so high on our list. But, but he's helped by a 127 wRC+ over the past 2 years in AAA (including the 7th best wRC+ in AAA for under age 27 players in 2023, min 400 PAs). And, Estevan has hit the same or better than the following players over the same period/level: Triston Casas (127), Miguel Vargas (126), Michael Bush (125), Curtis Mead (124), Jarred Kelenic (122), Spencer Steer (120), Sal Frelick (118), Jarren Duran (117), Ronnie Mauricio (108) to name a few. [min. 400 PAs] With 60 grade speed and 55 raw power, 28 HRs and 25 SBs in AAA in 2023, we are still sky high on the potential of Florial! For more on Estevan, check out our blog here. [Breaking News: Estevan was traded to CLE which means he may actually get a legit chance to play! This was a great move by CLE. They were obviously following Florial, or.....our blog....and may have the next Adolis Garcia!]
After swatting 33 HRs in 2022, the 70 graded power hitting Hunter followed that up with 30 long balls in 2023 and a promotion to COL (where, with his high leg kick and launch angle, he is made for). While Hunter is going to be up and down on average, there's no doubt he can hit it out.
Our #62 Chayce McDermott SP BALT 25.4 AAA 2024 (MLB NR/BALT#10 | Roto NR/#344/#249)
While the strikeout numbers have always been good (352 in 244 IP), the results (run suppression) haven't always been there. But this year Chayce got out to a 2.70 AA ERA with 40 IP 49 K's, 1.18 WHIP before his last three AA starts pushed his ERA up to 3.56 (over 68.1 IP). In the game we watched, Chayce dominated an Erie Sea Wolves lineup that included the hot hitting Colt Keith and Dillon Dingler (where Chayce struck out 7 over 5 IP with a live fastball). Ultimately, Chayce's production resulted in a promotion to AAA where he excelled to a 2.49 ERA (64 K's in 50.2 IP) With a strong and deceptive FB which sets up an above average slider and passable curve, Chayce has the repertorie to start, and he will, in Baltimore in 2024! [Update: Baltimore brass say Chayce isn't ready. He is! But it'll be more AAA Norfolk Tides to start 2024]
Justyn got off to a blazing start in AAA in 2023 but cooled as the year went on. Still, he got on everyone's radar with a .277 Avg, .891 OPS, 23 HRs, 89 runs (130 wRC+, .402 wOBA) over 611 PAs. With a career 132 wRC+ and .396 wOBA, 2023 year was no fluke. Justyn gets on base and hits for power and is knocking on the door.
Our #64 Jesus Rodriguez 1B/C NYY 21.9 A+ 2025 (MLB NR | Roto NR)
After being named 1st Team 1B in the FCL (.439 wOBA, .348 Avg/1.120 OPS, 12.6% K rate), Jesus got off to a slow start in Low A in 2023 before rebounding to a .297 Avg/ .804 OPS, 6 HRs, 15 SBs for a 121 wRC+ which wasn't spectacular but which led to a promotion to High A where Jesus hit very well (172 wRC+) over 112 PAs (hitting HRs and stealing bases at a 33% higher clip).
24 Home runs in 345 ABs? Yeah, that's pretty good. Sure it was Low A Rancho Cucamonga, but a .962 OPS is good anywhere. Is it too early to say we are looking at the LAD's best hitting prospect at C?
The projections are not good for Graham (basically average to below average hit tool, power, speed, fielding)...but the performance has been elite for the former 13th rounder, as Graham continued to tear up MiLB in 2023 with a 168 wRC+ in A+ and a 141 wRC+ in AA combining for a 2023 line of 481 ABs, .308 Avg / .931 OPS, 32 2Bs, 5 3Bs, 23 HRs, 94 RBIs, 22 SBs and just 93 K's. So, we're going to disregard the projections and go with the production!
What is up with CIN and developing pitching???? Joining Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ascraft, Connor Phillips, Chase Petty, Joe Boyle (traded to OAK) is this hard throwing (96.5 avg) right hander, Lyon Richardson. Pitching across three levels in 2023, Lyon was pretty dominant, compiling a 3.50 ERA and 100 K's in 69.1 IP (with just a .207 BAA). Now, we get it, 16.2 IP for the Reds, 4 starts and a woeful 8.64 ERA. But, Lyon was dominant through July 28th (1.85 ERA overall, 0.00 ERA at AAA). At that point, the wheels fell off, first with a MLB start on August 6 vs the Nationals (4 runs in 3 IP), which began a string of 8 starts giving up at least 1 ER (as as many as 7). We watched Lyon pitch in AA and AAA and we think he'll have success in MLB in 2024 -- he just has to limit walks and keep the ball in the park.
Although his fastball isn't going to break any radar guns, Brant does a great job of mixing pitches (slider/change), staying around the plate and getting batters out (without many walks): 3.28 ERA, 118 IP, 133 K's, just 33 BBs, 1.19 WHIP, and the 5th best xFIP (3.28) in MiLB (min 100 IP). Detroit was slow on the promotion here, so look for Brant to start in AAA or maybe, just maybe, straight to DET after a strong Spring.
A late start kept Sam off the prospect radar in 2022, but he put together a decent 3.92 ERA in AA (though just 30 K's in 43.2). There was some talk of a quick promotion to AAA in 2023, or even to MLB, until Sam went out and pitched to some hard contact at AA and a 5.81 ERA (26.1 IP / 29 K's). But, like with Nolan Schanuel, the Halos were aggressive in their plans and promoted Sam straight to MLB as a bullpen arm (and a good one at that), returning a 3.18 ERA in 17 MLB innings (14K's) while averaging 96.9 on his sinker. With 3+ pitches (Fangraphs says 2), a fastball that can reach 101 (and a weak Angels rotation ahead of him, especially with Ohtani gone), you have to think Sam has a bright future ahead (but hopefully as a starter).
Showing speed (8.4) and power (.231 ISO) and a career 141, we like the early returns. On the other hand, a high K rate (31.8%) and poor MiLB career average (.258) have us a little concerned.
Trey only posted a 128 wRC+ in 2023 in AAA, but, it was a really good year. In 474 PA's (so, not quite a full MLB type year of 600+ PAs), Trey hit 30 HRs and stole 32 bases. Yeah a 30 30 guy. That type of repertoire does come with a poor 30% K rate (but that was an improvement over 2022). Though, the 56 PA MLB sample resulted in a 46.4% K rate (and just a .238 wOBA).
2022 AA wasn't as kind to Pages (pronounced "Pa hays"), as shown by the .236 Avg (.265 in A+ in 2021) but he still hit 26 HRs in 487 ABs (31 in 438 ABs in 2021). The 2022 overall wRC+ of 102 (#787) revealed an even worse campaign (comparatively). Andy has a great arm and very good pop but with slower than average speed and a 24.5% K rate. So with a career 128 wRC+ (55th best among MiLB players with 1000+ PAs from 2021-23), Andy looked to put 2022 behind and get his groove back in 2023. And, in repeating AA, Andy did just that with a 144 wRC+ line: .284 Avg / .925 OPS and 25 BBs in 145 PA's to go with fewer K's (22.5% K rate) and a .211 ISO (despite just 3 HRs). That, in turn, was also good enough for LAD to promote Andy to AAA before an injury shut Andy down for the rest of the year. We're hot and cold on Andy (as Andy has been hot and cold), but hopefully you held as we think Andy's stock trends up.
What an exciting player Victor Scott II is -- which was showcased in the 2023 Futures Game (with VS stealing 2B then 3B in the same inning, maybe the same AB). With 94 steals on the year (132 games) and a .303 Avg, Victor can hit and steal bases. But where he lacks is OBP (w/ a BB rate at just 7.4%) and power (.794 OPS .425 SLG).
Fangraphs grades Jorge with 55 speed (despite a 9.4 speed grade, 29 SBs this year and 54 the two years prior). Hmm. At just 5'10" 160, Carlos will surprise you with little pop too (12 HRs/.180 ISO in 2023). We like the SPOW guys and Carlos is one of them (not to mention the 10th best wOBA among players over the past 5 years, min 400 PAs). Although Rotowire looks to be put off by the subpar A+ performance (86 wRC+, 31.9% K rate), it was just 94 PAs. We're not giving up so easy.
Our #85 Caleb Roberts C/OF AZ 23.11 AAA 2024 (MLB NR \ Roto NR)
We like Caleb Roberts, but apparently no one else does as he's not in AZ's top 30 (per MLB pipeline), nor in Rotowire's top 400. But, despite that, and despite a subpar first two professional years (in A ball and a short stint in AA in 2022), Caleb put it together in his age 23 year in AA, batting .278 / .905 OPS with 17 HRs, 11 SBs in 434 PA's (26.3% K rate) for a good 135 wRC+. We like the SPOW possibilities here with a 7.0 Spd rating and .245 ISO.
The DSL MVP hit 7 HRs and stole 19 bases, while batting .328. At 6'4", with a strong arm, Joendry has a chance to play SS or 3B for the big club down the road. The sooner we can see him in Class A, the better (for everyone).
Our #91 Ivan Herrera C STL 23.7 MLB 2022 (MLB NR/STL#4/STL#NR | Roto NR)
Ivan had a strong year at AAA Memphis (.297 Avg/.951 OPS, 10 HRs, 11 SB's and just 77 K's to 75 BB's) good for a 147 wRC+ (2nd best among players under 24). Pipeline had Ivan as STL's 4th best prospect in 2022, but dropped him by the final ranks in 2023 -- though he has just 55 MLB ABs). Ivan is STL's home grown catcher of the future and the .297 Avg in 37 MLB ABs in 2023 helps!
Our #92 Rece Hinds OF/3B CIN 23.4 AAA 2024 (MLB NR/CIN#13/CIN#10 | Roto NR/#104)
Moving to the OF from 3B seems to have helped jump start the batting side of Rece's profile as he's hit .269 /.866 OPS in AA this year with 23 HRs and 20 SBs good for an above average 121 wRC+ (but still an alarming 32.8% K rate). Expect to see Rece in Louisville in 2024!
The year began really well for the dimunitive Mariner's speedster (80 grade). Starting out at A+ Everett, Jonatan tore the cover off the ball, hitting .333/1.154 OPS with 7 HRs and 17 SBs for a wRC+ of 197 (5th best, 1 pt behind Junior Caminero), not to mention a selection to the Futures Game in Seattle. Then came the promotion to AA Arkansas and a major wall: .222 Avg/.727 OPS, 13 HRs, 94 wRC+, .333 wOBA...but an incredible 62 SBs over 489 PA's. While we love the speed power potentail, right now its more speed and we are more worried about the poor contact numbers (28% K rate in AA). Because he's just 21, he has time to turn it around in Arkansas in 2024.
We are aligned with Roto here (as MLB Pipeline doesn't even have Quintero in it's LAD top 30). To us, (and maybe to Roto), the best DSL year of any prospect (based on age, plate appearances and production) came from this guy, Eduardo Quintero, a 6'0" speedy outfielder that can really hit. .359 Avg/1.090 OPS, 54 Runs, 42 RBIs, 5 HRs, 22 SBs, .259 ISO, 9.3 Spd, 180 wRC+ (and just a 16% K rate over 212 PAs). We know, it's DSL, but that's some video game production.
After a disastrous 2022 (.228/.682 OPS, .301 wOBA, 78 wRC+) Luken was as good in 2023 as he was bad in '22 (.334 Avg/1.159 OPS, .482 wOBA, 180 wRC+). The 6'4", 280 lb Luken has always had above average power, but the 33 HRs in 380 AAA PA's in 2023 (.385 ISO with just a 20.0% K rate) was still impressive, securing Luken a spot in our top 100. Yes, he's old for most ranks, but how do we disregard the best wRC+ (180) in AAA (min 200 PAs). You want MLB fantasy production, Luken can give you that (right now).
Spencer quietly put together a solid year in AAA, batting .337 while swatting 10 HRs and stealing 9 bases. Perhaps even more appealing for TOR was the high walk rate (16.1%) compared to a low K rate (14.9%) leading to a .425 wOBA and 144 wRC+. And, best of all, all of that led to a promotion to the show and a return of 106wRC+ (slightly above major league average). If Spencer can get his MLB walk and K rate back to his 2023 AAA level he will be an on base machine (despite being an undersized 1B and despite the lack of power that is endemic to the position).
Justice put together his best year in 2023 across 3 levels, posting a .343 Avg / .942 OPS, 19 HRs, 6 SBs, including the 3rd best wRC+ (170) in AA (min 200 PAs). How he does in AAA will determine whether we see him in the DET lineup in 2024. Though he struggled in 58 PAs in his first taste of AAA. There's some appeal here, if Justice can repeat the AA success at AAA in 2024.
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