From the deeps of the MLB First Year Player Draft...well, mostly 1st year (at least 1st year MLB, as Bazzana had a brief stint in Australian pro ball)
Picks 1-3 were pretty much consensus. Bazzana, Condon, Burns in some order (but all top 3, and any could go #1) (so good job CLE, CIN, COL in not outthinking yourselves). But 4-5-6 were also pretty clear, or should have been clear: Wetherholt, Caglianone, Hagen Smith (in some order). And, here is our top 50. But then things went slightly off the rails...
Pick #7 by STL. JJ Wetherholt, 2B/SS, West Virginia
There were many who felt Wetherholt could go #1 (since he has that sweet of a swing and that strong of gap to gap power). But, injuries, including a hamstring this year dropped his stock. As long as he's fully recovered, the Red Birds get a potential #1 pick at #7 (and fill a need on the diamond at 2nd). In a perfect world, JJ starts in High A, advances to AA towards the end of year 1 (or to begin year 2) and is in the bigs by late 2025! It's possible Cards fans!
Pick #20 by TOR. Trey Yesavage, SP, East Carolina
We had Trey 8th on our board. With a 2.02 ERA, and 145 K's in 93.1 IP, we pretty much collectively gasped. And, that's not just an incredible looking strikeout ratio (13.98 K/9), it was the foundation for the most K's in D-1. Toronto must feel as if it just struck gold. There's actually scouting chatter right now, that Trey could actually pitch for TOR this year (and be successful)....
Pick #22 by BALT. Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
Understandably, teams were worried about the swing and miss in Vance's hit set, but a .318 Avg, 28 HRs, a .714 SLG%, 28/32 SBs and plus plus defense had us really liking the SPOW talent here. What Vance needs is professional development on recognizing pitches, making better decisions and maybe shortening his swing. The athleticism is already there. And, the Orioles have a proven track record on their Farm.
#31 by AZ, Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
Our #15 pick, with good speed (25/32 SBs and some decent pop, 14 HRs). Maybe we were a little too high on Ryan, but those were SEC numbers and Ryan led the Wildcats to the CWS.
#33 by MIN, Kyle Debarge, SS, Univ of Louisiana
We said don't overlook Kyle Debarge (our #20), but because he went to a school outside a power 5 conference, teams still overlooked him. We think that will prove to be a mistake as the .356 Avg, 21 HRs, 10/14 SBs, 1.117 OPS and just 20 K's line will show. While MIN may have needed a catcher (like Caleb Lomavita who went #39) or an OF here, they took one of the best available players and we can't fault them.
.379 Avg, 20 HRs, 11/13 SBs, 1.151 OPS = pretty pretty good. Oh and in the SEC.
#38 by COL, Brody Brecht, SP, Iowa (our #13)
128K's in 78.1 IP while hitting triple digits from an imposing 6'4" -- To say we love this pick by the Rockies is an understatement.
.330 Avg, 24 HRs, 1.039 OPS were some strong numbers in the toughest conference in the nation.
.349 Avg, 16 HRs, 18/18 SBs, 1.069 OPS. A really really good 2nd round pick for a 1st round talent.
100mph heater, 102 K's in 64.2 IP, 2.78 ERA. This guy is lights out.
6'7", 13.83 K/9, 125 K's in 81.1 IP (10th most in D1)
.306 Avg, 23 HRs, 65 RBIs, 1.026 OPS and can play multiple positions!
The final pick of round 2 is a beauty (.379 Avg, 20 HRs, 11/13 SBS, 1.151 OPS for the SEC and CWS champ Volunteers)
2.21 ERA, 151 K's in 106 IP, 4th most K's in D1
Finally, with the 1st pick of round 3, our Round 1 and top 15 graded prospect (Joshua KG) finds a home in Oakland (well, with the Athletics, actual home in flux).
Here's what MLB Pipeline had to say (who had Josh as its #90 rated prospect):
"Compact, strong and athletic, Kuroda-Grauer does a lot of things well from the right side of the plate. He almost never strikes out and seldom swings and misses, combining his contact skills with an advanced approach that points toward becoming at least an above-average hitter in the future. Utilizing an upright stance and a simple swing, he works counts and makes good swing decisions. There hasn’t been a ton of pop yet, but there is some belief he could grow into 15-homer power in the future.
While he’s not a burner, Kuroda-Grauer does run well and can steal some bases. Because of his above-average hands and actions to go along with a good internal clock, he has the chance to stick at shortstop, even though he has an arm that is just average."
But isn't this a little light as his .428 BA in 2024 was 2nd best in the nation (behind Condon and ahead of Caglianone). Ok, it wasn't the SEC, but wow, .428, that's impressive. Josh is also a good defensive SS who can run. So what's not to like here.
Way to go Oakland, while you missed on Caglianone and Wetherhold at #4, you rebounded a bit here.
The fish get a top hitting infielder (and borderline 1st rounder talent) in Gage (.381 Avg, 18 HRs, 1.176) in the 3rd round.
#100 by PHIL, John Spikerman, OF, Oklahoma
.368 Avg, 3 HRs, 11/17 SBs, .971 OPS. With great speed but near zero power, the contact skill set is top flight from the switch hitting outfielder (who flirted with .400 early on). We view Spikerman as a legit future MLB starter and a #1, #2 or #9 type hitter (that can play CF/LF).
#116 by SF, Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State
.381 Avg, 18 HRs, 1.176. How Dakota fell to the 4th round is a head scratcher.
#118 by SD, Tyson Neighbors, RHP, Kansas State
Averages 95 mph on his FB, tops out at 99.
#135 by SD, Clark Candiotti, SP, Arizona
3.39 ERA, 2 CGs as the Padres push hard on pitching.
#149 by SF, Jakob Christian, OF, University of San Diego
From @643charts:
We know. USD. But the Toreros played Texas (winning one) and took 2/3 from Arizona, beat Michigan, played Dallas Baptist, went 41-15...and well, you get it, they're pretty good and played top universities. Jakob Christian got a late start in 2024 (after transferring from Point Loma Nazarene where he was the D2 player of the year) but then lit it up to the tune of .364 Avg, 26 HRs, .828 SLG%, 1.288 OPS to become not just USD's best player but one of the best in the nation.
How he fell to round 5 is a wow for us. SF might have gotten the steal of the draft.
After Jakob Christian went off the board in round 5, the best college players remaining (Jared Jones [our #16, Keith Law's #52, MLB Pipeline #119] and Jalin Flores [Our #26, MLB Pipeline #116]) were still hanging out there and getting passed. But why? The agent? Money? Some other issue/commitment? We waited and waited until finally...some news. Jalin was apparently as disappointed as we were in his not being selected in the first 2 rounds (and then even in round 3) and made the announcement via Instagram that he was returning to Texas for one more year (good for him). Round 3 slot values begin at $1mill but fall to $710K by the end of the round. Round 4 starts at $700K and drops to $500K by the. By the time you hit Round 5, you have to be contemplating another year of college (if you can and think you can improve into a Day 1 pick) [Round 5 slots: $500K-$388K)
#206 (Rd 7) to DET, Jackson Strong, OF, Canisius
.350 Avg, 11 HRs and speed, speed, speed (42/46)
The 6'5" Kai can hit: .356 Avg, 7 HRs and run: 33/39 SBs. So why didn't he go higher?
3.23 ERA, 4 CGs. A workhouse!
Should advance quickly, bat leadoff, play CF, steal a ton of bases...Esteury Ruiz ish?
Jared Jones 1B, LSU
With some of the biggest power in the draft class (28 HRs, tied for 7th most D-1) and the show he put on at the combine, it's shocking that this big dude (6'5", 250) fell so far. Was it the contact concerns? Look, with the power he's put up, it's bona fide astonishing he wasn't gone by at least Round 3. So with round 6 in the books (and the slot money down to $300K to begin Round 7), the chatter got louder about Jared Jones returning to LSU for his junior year. But maybe teams already knew that when Jared wasn't taken on Day 1 that he was going to return (even without an announcement). Maybe the same happened with Jalin (that maybe teams called on Day 2 and he told them he was returning to school unless they gave him Day 1 $$) And as we start Round 8, we're thinking there is no way Jared Jones remains in this draft pool....(but again, teams probably already know that). This is a huge disappointment and we have to think someone game Jared really bad advice about slot value that turned teams off.
DRAFT DAY (ONE) Reaches
Pick #4 by OAK. Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
With Wetherholt, Caglianone, Hagen Smith, Christian Moore, Trey Yesavage and so many other great prospects available, why go with a 1B who projects as a Andrew Vaughn (CHW) type ceiling. Now, Andrew Vaughn is a major leaguer, and Nick is a walk machine, but at #4, we'd be looking all-star potential, not just "major league potential". We had Kurtz at #25 on our board (of college only prospects), so the A's taking him at 4 was a bit of a mic drop for us (maybe it was $$, and a below slot agreement that helped Oakie make this pick) but literally swing for the fences here with Jac Caglianone (our #5) or go with the super safe pick in JJ Wetherholt (our #4). In hindsight, we probably should have had Nick higher, at like #18/#19, but that still is a major reach by Oakland at 1.4
Not picking on Wake Forest here as Nick and Seaver are really good players (Seaver: .308 Avg, 16 HRs, 11/12 SBs, .954 OPS). They just weren't the best players available at these points in the draft. But, if the Nationals were focused on developing a SS (and not picking the best players), well, in that case, then admittedly there were fewer options. Still, we'd have taken Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, Rutgers (our #14), Kyle Debarge, LA Lafayette (our #20) or Jalen Flores, TX (our #26) before Seaver King. And, with Kaelan Culpepper, Kansas State still available, the Nats had another similar or even better player (Kaelan is a strong defender) still on the board to hedge their bets if Seaver went before the National's next pick. But maybe it's the swiss army knife/utility role that Seaver can play. Still, we had Seaver 30th on our board (and that's without adding in H.S. players).
Pick #26 by NYY. Ben Hess SP, Alabama (outside our top 50)
Though he has strong swing and miss potential (106 K's in 68.1 IP, 14.02 K/9), he went 5-5 with a 5.80 ERA, giving up 13 HRs (1.7/9) with a 1.39 WHIP (60 hits, 35 walks). Not exactly ace material, even on the college level. Ben could end up being a back end starter but with so many top prospects still available, we felt Hess here was a reach by the Bronx Bombers. If the Yanks wanted to go arm here, why not go highest ceiling with Brody Brecht, Iowa or Christ Cortez, Texas A&M (but we guess NYY felt they were going highest ceiling in mid 90s pitcher Hess).
Pick #30 by TEX. Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford (outside our top 50)
TEX really reached here at pick #30 by taking Malcolm Moore out of Stanford (whom we feel needs a lot of work at the plate). To us, pick #30 was either pre-determined for a catcher without a look at the players still available or TEX panicked when HOU took Walker Janek (the top catcher) at #28. If was us, and we really wanted a catcher, we'd have swung a deal to get into the Competitive balance round A in order to take a catcher with our 2nd pick and then would have taken Jakob Christian (OF/USD), Brody Brecht (SP/IOWA), Josh Kuroda-Grauer (SS/Util Rutgers), Ryan Waldschmidt (OF/KY), or Jared Jones (1B/LSU) at pick 30. Or, if we were determined to go catcher, we'd have selected our #34 prospect Caleb Lomavita, CAL (like the Nats did at #39).
Pick #32 by BALT. Griff O'Ferrall, SS, Virginia (outside our top 50)
As much as we liked Balt's pick at #22, we dislked this pick at 32. Griff is a contact hitter, and even then, the .324 average isn't wow status (not even in the top 250 eligible batters). If you want a contact guy that plays SS, why not Joshua Kuroda-Grauer from Rutgers (.428 BA) or Kyle Debarge (LA Lafayette, .356 Avg) who MIN picked up one spot later at #33.
Comments