6/12/22
Wasn't it about time we figured out a formula that rates hitting prospects on their combined speed and power? Well, look no further, as we have developed a formula which accounts the excitement that dual threat players present -- players who we believe have the greatest chance for success in the Show (from an offensive profile) due to a display of power, above average speed and lower K rates (if you can't put the ball in play, you can't get steal bases, score runs, move runners).
With each promotion, our formula credits the prospect with success as he gets closer to the show and faces stiffer competition, while treating a high strikeout rate at lower levels more harshly.
And now for the technical stuff: (the stats/metrics we use) Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), Speed (Spd), K Rate, Minor League Level of Play (AAA, AA, A+, A) adjusted by Number of Plate Appearances. While the actual formula looks like this:
SPOW=((wOBA*[level 1/.95/.9/.85]*5+(Spd*0.175)-(Krate*[level: .03/.035/.04/.05])*PA#
In order to limit the world of players, we used a minimum .400 wOBA (which itself represents a pretty big number, but you'd be surprised to know that 128 players with a min 110 PA's were at .400 or better, so we cut that in half to about 60); and we required a 5.6 or above Spd score; 110 minimum ABs and players aged 27 or under. Because of these limitations, we are missing some notable studs: CJ Abrams (-wOBA), Riley Greene (-PA's), Nolan Gorman (-Spd), Elly De La Cruz (-wOBA), Joey Weimer (-wOBA), Moises Gomez (-Spd), Enmannual Rodriguez (-Spd), Anthony Volpe (-wOBA).
Finally, the stats (on which the formula is based) are through 6/11/22 (thank you www.fangraphs.com)...and obviously these change every day and will affect the rank and tier, but as of 6/11/22, here they are!
Note that a SPOW score of 1.3 is around league average so 1.5 and above is above average, 1.75 is good, 2.0 and above is pretty good, 2.5+ is very good, 2.75 and above is excellent and 3.0+ is insane.
[Tiers are 1 to 7. Tier 1 is Insane, Tier 2 is Excellent, Tier 3 is very very good, Tier 3 very good, Tier 4 still pretty pretty good, Tier 5 pretty good, Tier 6 good, Tier 7 above average]
Level Age Name SPOW Score
TIER 1
SD AAA 23 Estuery Ruiz 3.52
TIER 2
BAL AAA 21 Gunnar Henderson 2.93
COL AAA 26 Sean Bouchard 2.88
BAL A+ 21 John Rhodes 2.86
MN AAA 23 Royce Lewis 2.86
COL A 23 Braiden Ward 2.84
AZ AAA 26 Stone Garrett 2.80
OAK AA 25 Max Schuemann 2.78
KC AAA 24 Vinnie Pasquatino 2.77
TIER 3
AZ AA 21 Corbin Carroll 2.74
BOS AA 26 Devlin Granberg 2.73
PIT AA 22 Henry Davis 2.73
TEX AA 26 JP Martinez 2.68
AZ AAA 24 Dominic Fletcher 2.68
COL AA 20 Ezequial Tovar 2.67
SDP AAA 27 Matthew Batten 2.67
TBR A 21 Mason Auer 2.64
ATL A 22 Caleb Durbin 2.63
STL AA 20 Jordan Walker 2.58
PIT AA 24 Matt Gorski 2.58
HOU AAA 26 J.J. Matijevic 2.57
AZ AA,AAA 27 JanCarlos Cintron 2.56
PHI AA 22 Logan O'Hoppe 2.55
TEX AA 23 Ezequiel Duran 2.52
PIT AA 25 Andres Alvarez 2.50
TIER 4
CHC A+ 20 Pete Crow-Armstrong 2.44
SF A 24 Vaun Brown 2.42
COL AA 23 Daniel Montano 2.39
MIA AA 24 Paul McIntosh 2.38
CHC AAA 23 Christopher Morel 2.36
AZ A 19 Jordan Lawlar 2.34
BOS A, A+ 21 Ceddanne Rafaela 2.31
STL A+, AA 20 Masyn Winn 2.31
LAA AA 24 Zach Humphreys 2.30
WAS A 21 Viandel Pena 2.26
TIER 5
HOU A+ 24 Quincy Hamilton 2.22
TEX A 19 Alejandro Osuna 2.22
DET A+ 20 Colt Keith 2.21
CHC A+,AA 25 Jake Slaughter 2.20
LAA AA 25 Trey Cabbage 2.19
HOU A+, A 24 Jordan Brewer 2.09
AZ AA 23 Blaze Alexander 2.08
TBR A+ 22 Dru Baker 2.07
LAD A 23 Austin Gauthier 2.04
DET A 22 Carlos Mendoza 2.03
TIER 6
MIL A 18 Jackson Chourio 1.99
LAD AA 25 James Outman 1.95
MIN A 19 Emmanuel Rodriguez 1.93
OAK A 22 Denzel Clarke 1.92
SEA A 18 Edwin Arroyo 1.92
MIN A+ 22 Christian Encarnacion 1.82
SDP A 24 Cole Cummings 1.80
NYY A 22 Austin Wells 1.79
CHW A, A+ 22 Terrel Tatum 1.78
SDP A, A+ 23 Lucas Dunn 1.77
WAS A 20 Jeremy DeLa Rosa 1.73
TIER 7
LAD A 22 Damon Keith 1.56
TBR A 19 Carson Williams 1.50
LAD A, A+ 20 Alex De Jesus 1.50
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