In December of 2019 (during winter meetings), the St. Louis Cardinals made a bit of a head scratcher of a decision -- they let minor league slugger Adolis Garcia walk. Now, for the Cardinals, Adolis wasn't the only future starter they let go from their minor league system as you could add Randy Arozarena and Luke Voit to that list.
Of course, this wasn't the Adolis Garcia that we know today. Sure, he was the same person, but he hadn't broke out yet. He was just a soon to be 27 y.o. minor leaguer that the Cardinals gave up on (and had given him just 17 PA's in 2018). So they DFA'd him on December 18 and then TEX offered "cash considerations" to work out a trade (i.e. some nominal amount). That's basically a cut -- with STL telling us they didn't have room for Adolis or didn't have faith in him as a major leaguer.
I had actually drafted Adolis in March of 2019 in a 3 round minors/rookie draft (14 team dynasty league). That was after a then 25 y.o. Adolis hit 22 HRs in AAA in 2018 over 428 PAs (.256 Avg). Now the wRC+ wasn't good back then (95) but the ISO was great (.244) and the K rate was also at a fairly low 23.1%. The problem for Adolis (and why his wRC+ was so low) was his impatience at the plate -- an inability to walk (just 3.3% BB rate in 2018). We could see talent (the power plus speed), if someone could just work with him on that plate discipline.
In steps Texas who saw a prospect with the potential to break out in a big way. Of course, then came the 2020 Covid year and so no minor league year for Adolis. He did receive 7 MLB PA's for TEX in 2020, but that was it. But TEX held on to him. Then came 2021 when Adolis broke out in a big way, hitting 31 HRs while swiping 16 bases. Adolis followed the 2021 breakout with 27 HRs and 25 SBs in 2022 and then, this past season, at age 30 for the WS champ Rangers, Adolis hit an incredible 39 HRs on his way to a 124 wRC+.
And guess what? His walk rate increased to 10.3%.
So what happened in the Adolis situation? Well, it seems really a combination of factors. STL didn't have room (or thought they didn't) plus Adolis was getting older and STL wasn't sure he could hit. And, it also took someone identifying a shortcoming and a willingness to work with Adolis to fix it (which, in his case was the BB rate, which has improved each year as a regular major leaguer -- increasing from 5.1% to 6.1% to 10.3% last year). And, maybe the best ability is "availability" as it also took an opening.
So what about 2024? Who are our Adolis breakout players of the year candidates? (Nolan Jones was that guy last year).
Drum Roll please.....our candidates are: Estevan Florial, Trey Cabbage, Moises Gomez.
Why these guys? Well, first, they are each older minor league "prospects" with limited MLB experience and all have been released or traded away before sticking in MLB.
Estevan turned 26 this winter and has just 134 MLB PA's (including 71 last year with NYY). Like STL (and Adolis), NYY gave up on Estevan and traded him to CLE this winter where he should be given the chance to start. Estevan has great power and speed (hitting 28 HRs and stealing 25 bases in AAA in 2023, which reminds me of a certain STL/TEX prospect with great SPOW skills). The problem for Estevan has been a high K rate (hovering at 30%). If he can work on pitch selection and plate approach, the sky is the limit. Let's go Guardians!
Next up Trey Cabbage. Like Estevan, Trey also had a team (LAA) give up on him. But, for Trey, it was actually the 2nd team to give up on him (as MN had too). After destroying AAA in 2023 (30 HRs, 32 SBs, .975 OPS) (and 8 seasons in the minors), Trey was finally promoted to the Bigs for the first time in his career in 2023, but bombed the wrong way -- striking out an alarming 46.4% of the time (though it was just 22 games and 56 PA's).
So what do you do with the former 4th rounder and soon to be 27 y.o.? Do you give him a another chance (Jo Adell style) or do you cut him, STL style? LAA did the latter, DFA'ing Trey on 1/27/24. Like Estevan (and Adolis), Trey has a great blend of speed and power. But, he also has one area that needs massive improvement (the K rate). Although that rate was at 30% in AAA in 2023, Trey had actually improved on what had been a ghastly 35%+ MiLB K rate (in 2021-22).
Now, look, a 30% K rate isn't good, but in the Majors it also isn't fatal as Aaron Judge returned a 174 wRC+ with a 28.4% K rate, Matt Wallner was at a 144 wRC+ with a 31.5% K rate, Brandon Belt had a 34.9% k rate but a 138 wRC+ and young Twins phenom Edouard Julien returned a 136 wRc+ despite a 31.4% K rate (and there are more: J.D. Martinez 31.1%, Mike Trout 28.7%). But, if you're striking out about a 1/3 of the time, then those other 2 ABs need to be pretty productive (as you're decreasing your margin for success and increasing the chances of failure). Plus, Trey has great wheels and not putting the ball in play obviously minimizes what he can do on the basepath.
Someone is going to claim Trey Cabbage (or trade for him before he goes to waivers), and he's going to make an impact.
And finally, Moises Gomez.
Can history repeat itself for STL? The situation seems eerily similar doesn't it? 2019 Adolis Garcia and 2024 Moises Gomez. Moises was just DFA'd to make room for another player (just like STL had in 2019 with Adolis), and while Moises doesn't have the speed Adolis has, he certainly has the power (mashing 30 HRs at AAA Memphis in 2023 and 39 in 2022 between AAA and AA). Moises broke out in a big way in 2022, but couldn't quite follow that up in 2023 (despite bringing down his K rate to 31.7% from 35% a year earlier). So STL did what STL does, it punts.
While STL didn't give up on a huge investment in Moises (after signing him as a FA minor leaguer in 2021, after the Rays had also given up), it still gave up a guy that can absolutely hit bombs.
Try this on for size. Over the past 2 years, only one other MiLB player (Colorado's Hunter Goodman, 70) hit more HRs than Moises Gomez' 69 four-baggers. And during that two year period, there are only 2 MiLB players (with 1000 or more PAs) that have a better ISO than Moises' (.274) and only 3 players with a better SLG% than Gomez' .535.
You want power? Moises gives you power. But now, for who?
With CLE giving Estevan Florial a shot for regular playing time, who else is willing to step it up and give a potential next Adolis Garcia a chance?
CHC, MIA, KC, MN, PITT, SD, WASH, OAK, I'm looking at you!
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