Pitching is tough to figure out. All teams need it, but few managers (and/or teams) trust the farm since minor league success often does not translate to major league success -- just ask the Braves' Kyle Muller (2.96 AAA ERA, 3.23 xFIP in 13 Starts vs 23.63 MLB ERA in 1 2022 Start, 5.49 MLB ERA across 9 total starts, 2021-22) and the Brewers Ethan Small (3.18 AAA ERA in 12 Starts vs 6.75 MLB ERA in 1 Start)
So, what can we do? Well, we can hope! And, we can monitor great pitching performances that demand that the parent teams give them a shot in the bigs, since none of us really know whether the prospect's stuff will play until they've given a shot to play it.
In monitoring pitching for the year, we need to look at the season long numbers (and level), while also ensuring that the rate of success has continued of late. The "of late" is important because pitchers that were doing well, but get shelled in their last start or last few starts end up pretty well cooling the jets on the promotion talk -- which applies to Boston's Brandon Walter (2.88 ERA in AA, 9 GS, 50 IP but an 8.22 ERA in AAA, 2 GS, 7.2 IP) and Baltimore's DL Hall whose ERA jumped from 3.86 (which put him on the cusp of a call up) to 5.17 [xFIP 3.54] after giving up 7 ERs in 3.1 IP yesterday (6/26).
Also, if we're talking "imminent" promotions, then we also can exclude A/A+ ball as there's almost zero chance a prospect skips AA (though, if we're the Phillies, we're calling up Andrew Painter already! [2.16 xFIP, A+]). But with Chase Silseth's (3.13 xFIP) recent AA to MLB promotion (which also carried initial success in the bigs), we can't totally discount a call-up for a player balling out in AA.
So, if that's our world (AAA and AA), we have to figure out the basis on which we should measure success. For us, its clearly xFIP which is premised on the notion that the pitcher should be graded on the realms he is responsible for: strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs (flyball rate), while not penalizing him for defense. xFIP incorporates ERA but gives us a better gauge of pitching success than simply ERA by accounting for elements the pitcher controls as opposed to poor d, poor scoring calls, or even defensive alignment.
xFIP = ((13*(Fly balls * lgHR/FB%))+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
An xFIP of 3.5 or below is seen as above average, but our xFIP is going to demand a little bit more (an xFIP of 3.00 or better). So with xFIP as our guide (but subtracting out recent "bad" stretches), let's see what pitchers may be on the verge of a promotion to the Show!
Brayan Bello (Red Sox, AAA). Bello dominated AA and then he dominated AAA, putting together a season long 2.59 xFIP with a 33.7% K rate (12.04 per 9). With an upper 90s fastball, a very good Changeup and an above average slider, Bello has three above average offerings fit for a starter. If Boston has an injury in the rotation (or its next DH), look for Bello to get the call. In the meantime, Bello should work on the control issues to reduce the walk rate of 9.2%.
Gavin Williams (Guardians, AA). Gavin Williams is a flamethrower, that part stands out. But, he also has a pretty good curve and change combo to pair with an average slider. That repertoire of 4 pitches, two above average ones and a Hunter Green caliber heater, make Gavin a surefire major leaguer. The question is when? With just 9.1 AA innings to his name (45.0 in A+), it may be a little bit longer, but when it does happen, Gavin's 2.83 xFIP (1.51 ERA) and 38.2% K rate (13.08/9 IP) project to success in the bigs.
Reese Olson (Tigers, AA). Despite an xFIP of 2.59 and K rate of 37.4% (13.86 per 9), Reese Olson has flown under the radar. The 16th ranked DET prospect (per MLB) has an above average FB, Slider and Changeup. But, because none of those offerings are lights out, Reese hasn't drawn the same attention as other prospects. But, isn't it time we start paying attention to 96 K's in 62.1 IP -- especially for a Tigers team that is in need of pitching?
Logan Allen (Guardians, AA). Is it just me or does it seem like Cleveland always has a Logan Allen pitching for them? Anyway, like past Logan Allens, this one has put up pretty good minors numbers too (2.80 xFIP, 35.6% K rate). But, I'm one of those "I love fastball velocity" guys, which Logan doesn't have. But, what he does have is a great change and pinpoint control. I'm thinking Marco Gonzalez here...
Wilmer Flores (Tigers, AA). A 2.44 xFIP is outstanding, as is the 35.7% K rate across 50 IP. Although Wilmer's ERA in AA is 3.26 (while it was 1.83 in A+), the 3.14 AA xFIP is still good and Wilmer is holding his own.
6. Gavin Stone (LAD, AA).
Gavin Stone has been very good and dare I say he has the Stones to continue! In fact, the former University of Central Arkansas Bear hasn't been intimidated by the higher competition, and hasn't minded the shade cast by his Tulsa pen mates (Bobby Miller, Landon Knack and Clayton Beeter [xFIP 3.52], all of whom MLB has ranked ahead). Instead, all Gavin has done is gone out and been the LAD's best pitcher in AA (2.61 xFIP, 33.1% K rate) by sitting at 94 on his FB (reaching 98) and pairing that with a decent slider and changeup.
7. Kyle Harrison (Giants, AA). With 29 IP in A+ followed by 24.1 IP in AA, Kyle holds an overall xFIP of 2.35. However, that number is derived mainly from a dominant A+ start to the year, as the promotion to AA has carried a 4.02 ERA....though fortunately, the strikeouts are still there, in fact an amazing 16.54 per 9 (43.4% K rate).
Notable prospects just missing the cut, Ken Waldichuk (3.28 xFIP, NYY#5), Garrett Hill (3.33 xFIP, DET#24), Caleb Kilian (3.41 xFIP, CHC#5), Max Meyer (3.51 xFIP, MIA#2), Hunter Brown (3.63 xFIP, HOU#1)
*All xFIP stats via FanGraphs and are through 6/26/22
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