Yahoo Fantasy Football Projections
A Look Back at 2021
And a discussion of "waiting to draft a QB" theory
Ever wonder how accurate those yahoo fantasy projections really are? Well, below, we've re-constructed the pre-season (pre-draft) PPR projections (when all of us are building our teams) and compared them to the end of the year results so we can judge how accurate yahoo was.
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In compiling this list, we realized that among the many things that can derail our comparison (and usefulnes of info): 1) our league settings may well be different than yours; 2) there were a lot of injuries or missed games during the year; 3) Yahoo made an error on who "the guy" would be...like a Cam Newton over Mac Jones or Mike Davis over Cordarrelle Patterson. Also, the last 2 or so weeks of the season can result in a boom for some players (as many as 60 fantasy points for a guy) which may not have benefitted you, if your season's final takes place earlier, or else it benefits only the lucky team that had those guys in the final -- in both cases, when you're looking at season long fantasy points, an end of the year bonanza may not have helped you during the season (but maybe its a harbinger for good things to come for that player).
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In the end, taking out injuries (which Yahoo can't predict), we found that by and large Yahoo overestimates points. Sure, it under-estimated on Cooper Kupp, Jonathan Taylor and DeeBo Samuel but those players had incredible, amazing years. If you add up the fantasy points among a team (based on yards from the prior year, QB projected points and scoring), you're going to find cases, on a team by team basis, where Yahoo adds in points that don't exist. Either they're hedging bets or they just don't have the right algorithm. In the end, what we found is that yahoo is correct approximately 20% of the time (within 10% of the projected points). That number is higher when we subtract out season long injuries. But, we don't give Yahoo a pass on all games missed as Yahoo has to factor in players missing at least one game in a 17 year season unless it has an algorithm for each player (based on % of games played). What yahoo should do is an expected per game average (and an expected number of games played: based on prior injury and/or positional averages).
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In any event, here we go: Yahoo's 2021 Projected top 125 vs actual score:
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Proj Rank. Player Team POS Projected (2021) End of Year (2021) (Net +/-)
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1. Christian McCaffrey CAR RB 466.16* 127.50 (-338.66)
2. Patrick Mahomes KC QB 440.63 374.66 (-65.97)
3. Josh Allen BUF QB 434.34 417.58 (+16.76)
4. Kyler Murray AZ QB 411.59* 310.48 (-101.11)
5. Dak Prescott DAL QB 403.89 330.56 (-70.33)
6. Russell Wilson SEA QB 400.61* 242.82 (-157.79)
7. Lamar Jackson BALT QB 391.81* 252.98 (-138.83)
8. Justin Herbert LAC QB 382.49 395.76 (+13.27)
9. Travis Kelce KC TE 381.22 262.80 (-118.42)
10. Tyreek Hill KC WR 366.78 296.50 (-70.28)
11. Aaron Rodgers GB QB 363.85 337.30 (-26.55)
12. Dalvin Cook MN RB 360.93 206.30 (-154.63)
13. Stefon Diggs BUF WR 350.93 285.50 (-65.43)
14. Alvin Kamara NO RB 350.92 234.70 (-116.22)
15. Jalen Hurts PHI QB 351.82 321.16 (-30.66)
16. Davante Adams GB WR 348.64 344.30 (-4.34)
17. Ryan Tannehill TN QB 348.13 282.36 (-65.77)
18. Tom Brady NE QB 347.85 386.74 (+38.89)
19. Baker Mayfield CLE QB 338.76 193.90 (-144.86)
20. Matthew Stafford LAR QB 332.56 346.74 (+14.18)
21. DeAndre Hopkins AZ WR 329.88 147.20 (-182.68)
22. Aaron Jones GB RB 323.09 229.00 (-94.09)
23. Kirk Cousins MN QB 322.55 307.34 (-15.21)
24. Daniel Jones NYG QB 322.13* 174.52 (-147.61)
25. Jonathan Taylor IND RB 321.90 373.10 (+51.20)
26. Austin Ekeler LAC RB 321.47 343.80 (+22.33)
27. Joe Burrow CIN QB 320.19 328.24 (+8.05)
28. Ezekiel Elliot DAL RB 319.38 252.06 (-67.32)
29. Jameis Winston NO QB 315.45* 120.40 (-195.05)
30. DK Metcalf SEA WR 314.33 244.30 (-70.03)
31. Saquon Barkley NYG RB 310.35 148.60 (-161.75)
32. Carson Wentz IND QB 305.11 265.02 (-40.09)
33. Nick Chubb CLE RB 304.88 215.30 (-89.58)
34. JK Dobbins BAL RB 299.78*
35. Ryan Fitzpatrick WAS QB 299.72*
36. Terry McLaurin WAS WR 299.30 213.50 (-85.80)
37. Calvin Ridley ATL WR 299.22* 71.10 (-228.12)
38. Matt Ryan ATL WR 299.16 234.92 (-64.24)
39. Chris Godwin TB WR 297.38 242.40 (-54.98)
40. Trevor Lawrence JAX QB 297.20 216.04 (-81.16)
41. Derek Carr OAK QB 296.01 270.96 (-25.05)
42. Teddy Bridgewater DEN QB 295.49 209.68 (-85.81)
43. AJ Brown TN WR 295.18 180.90 (-114.28)
44. Sam Darnold CAR QB 295.14* 170.28 (-124.86)
45. Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC RB 291.73* 117.60 (-174.13)
46. Najee Harris PIT RB 291.24 300.70 (+9.46)
47. Justin Jefferson MN WR 291.12 330.40 (+39.28)
48. Jimmy Garoppolo SF QB 289.97* 239.50 (-50.47)
49. Keenan Allen LAC WR 288.10 257.80 (-30.3)
50. Darren Waller LV TE 286.25 133.50 (-152.75)
51. Tyler Lockett SEA WR 285.68 241.40 (-44.28)
52. Joe Mixon CIN RB 283.02 287.90 (+4.88)
53. Zach Wilson NYJ QB 282.31* 162.86 (-119.45)
54. Chris Carson SEA RB 281.76* 48.10 (-233.66)
55. Derrick Henry TN RB 278.59* 193.30 (-85.29)
56. George Kittle SF TE 278.45 198.00 (-80.45)
57. Cooper Kupp LAR WR 278.44 439.50 (+161.06)
58. D'Andre Swift DET RB 277.44 208.90 (-78.54)
59. Antonio Gibson WAS RB 276.25 229.10 (-47.15)
60. Mike Evans TB WR 274.97 262.50 (-12.47)
61. Robert Woods LAR WR 271.72* 137.20 (-134.52)
62. Darrell Henderson LAR RB 270.91* 163.40 (-107.51)
63. Diontae Johnson PIT WR 265.79 274.40 (+8.61)
64. CeeDee Lamb DAL WR 263.77 232.80 (-30.97)
65. Allen Robinson CHI WR 263.52* 87.00 (-176.52)
66. Amari Cooper DAL WR 262.53 202.50 (-60.03)
67. TJ Hockenson DET TE 260.25 145.30 (-114.95)
68. Adam Thielen MN WR 258.25 199.80 (-59.45)
69. David Montgomery CHI RB 256.97 196.00 (-60.97)
70. Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 255.65 228.10 (-27.55)
71. DJ Moore CAR WR 254.73 237.50 (-17.23)
72. Jerry Jeudy DEN WR 253.90* 85.00 (-168.90)
73. Tua Tagovailoa MIA QB 253.79 190.92 (-62.87)
74. Mark Andrews BAL TE 252.04 301.10 (+49.06)
75. Tyrod Taylor HOU QB 251.21* 86.74 (-164.47)
76. Odell Beckham CLE WR 249.16 129.10 (-120.06)
77. Corey Davis NYJ WR 249.03 105.20 (-143.83)
78. Deebo Samuel SF WR 246.84 338.96 (+92.12)
79. Jamison Crowder NYJ WR 246.92 109.70 (-137.22)
80. Robby Anderson CAR WR 246.67 138.50 (-108.17)
81. Juju Smith Schuster PIT WR 245.58* 34.80 (-210.78)
82. Chase Claypool PIT WR 243.18 166.60 (-76.58)
83. Cam Newton NE QB 242.75
84. Chase Edmonds AZ RB 242.13 143.30 (-98.83)
85. Tee Higgins CIN WR 242.00 219.10 (-22.90)
86. Brandon Aiyuk SF WR 241.88 170.30 (-71.58)
87. Sterling Shepard NYG WR 241.04* 77.70 (-163.34)
88. Courtland Sutton DEN WR 239.70* 150.24 (-89.46)
89. Julio Jones TN WR 239.37 80.40 (-158.97)
90. Jarvis Landry CLE WR 239.01 133.00 (-106.01)
91. Brandin Cooks TEX WR 237.47 231.80 (-5.67)
92. Kenny Golladay NYG WR 237.19 89.10 (-148.09)
93. Tyler Boyd CIN WR 235.86 183.84 (-52.02)
94. Myles Gaskin MIA RB 235.27 173.60 (-61.67)
95. Mike Williams LAC WR 235.16 246.60 (+11.44)
96. Jared Goff DET QB 234.19 202.50 (-31.69)
97. Lavishka Shenault JAX WR 233.66 127.00 (-106.66)
98. Noah Fant DEN TE 232.91 159.00 (-73.91)
99. DJ Chark JAX WR 232.80*
100. Kyle Pitts ATL TE 230.70 176.60 (-54.10)
101. Raheem Mostert SF RB 227.96*
102. Michael Pittman INDY WR 226.47 238.60 (+12.13)
103. Justin Fields CHI QB 227.39 136.80 (-90.59)
104. TY Hilton INDY WR 225.71* 74.10 (-151.61)
105. Mike Davis ATL RB 225.69 138.20 (-87.49)
106. Logan Thomas WAS TE 224.57* 53.60 (-170.97)
107. James Robinson JAX RB 223.48* 173.90 (-49.58)
108. Miles Sanders PHIL RB 221.92* 117.20 (-104.72)
109. DeVante Parker MIA WR 221.12* 103.50 (-117.62)
110. Nelson Agholor NE WR 220.67 103.40 (-107.27)
111. Kareem Hunt CLE RB 219.54 110.00 (-109.54)
112. Mecole Hardman KC WR 219.14 140.90 (-78.24)
113. Jakobi Meyer NE WR 218.40 186.30 (-32.10)
114. Curtis Samuel WAS WR 217.99* 9.8 (-208.19)
115. Elijah Moore NYJ WR 216.44 * 138.20 (-78.24)
116. Ronald Jones TB RB 215.85 79.20 (136.65)
117. Marvin Jones JAX WR 215.34 180.20 (-35.14)
118. Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR 214.25 304.60 (+86.35)
119. Darnell Mooney CHI WR 214.25 219.70 (+5.45)
120. Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR 213.96 227.30 (+14.34)
121. Josh Jacobs LV RB 213.62 226.00 (+12.38)
122. Jaylen Waddle MIA WR 212.81 245.80 (+32.99)
123. Antonio Brown TB WR 210.99 121.10 (-89.89)
124. Marquez Callaway NO WR 210.03 151.80 (-58.23)
125. James Connor AZ RB 200.21 257.70 (+57.49)
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Players in top 125 at end of year (who were not projected to be top 125)
Hunter Renfro LV WR 259.10
Leonard Fournette TB RB 255.60
Mac Jones NE QB 237.94
Taylor Heinicke WAS QB 237.86
Cordarrelle Patterson ATL RB/WR 234.60
Marquis Brown BAL WR 226.30
Damien Harris NE RB 210.10
Dalton Schultz DAL TE 208.80
Christian Kirk AZ WR 207.62
Javonte Williams DEN RB 204.90
Devin Singletary BUF RB 197.80
Devonta Smith PHIL WR 185.60
AJ Dilllon GB RB 185.60
Zach Ertz PHI TE 180.70
Kendrick Bourne NE WR 180.50
Van Jefferson LAR WR 168.20
Davis Mills HOU QB 166.95
Eli Mitchell SF RB 165.00
Mike Gisecki MIA TE 165.00
Dallas Goedert PHI TE 165.00
Hunter Henry NE TE 164.30
Dawson Knox BUF TE 164.10
Russell Gage ATL WR 163.00
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What we learned from this exercise. Well, at first glance it seemed that offense in 2021 had to be down across the board, which in turn would give Yahoo an out for greatly exaggerating projected fantasy points. But, when we look back at total offense 2020 vs 2021, we find that offense wasn't really down. In 2020, just one team averaged 400+ yards a game (KC). In 2021, two teams did (DAL and TB). And although just 15 teams in 2021 averaged at least 350 yards a game, compared to 21 teams in 2020, with the extra game (in the 2021 season), 15 teams surpassed 6000 total yards of offense in 2021, while only 13 did in 2020. Only one team (KC) surpassed the 6500 yards of offense mark in 2020, while 4 did so in 2021 (DAL, TB, KC, LAC and a 5th, BUF was just 7 yards short). And, same goes with points scored, in both 2020 and 2021, 2 teams surpassed 500 pts scored (GB, BUF in 2020 and DAL, TB in 2021) while 15 teams in both years topped 400 pts scored.
So, in 2021, the per game averages may have been down, but not season long points. For the year, the 125 top scoring players (according to one of our league's settings), scored at least 163 pts, which means under 10 pts a game. Ideally, you want your players to score at least 15 points a game, and hopefully 20 or more. But at 10pts a game, that is scraping the bottom of what you need to win from week to week, but perhaps that just highlights the low scoring year that it was (if it was). There were injuries, of course, a lot of them. But wouldn't other guys step up and take over those fantasy points? Either the points were spread out more in 2021 than in prior years, or Yahoo just over-projected.
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Though there were some hits by Yahoo, by far and away, there were more projections that missed the mark (as over the actual). The hugest "under" projection was Cooper Kupp where Yahoo missed by 161 points.
If Yahoo was right on the projection, and you selected more than one of those players, chances are you made the playoffs and/or won your league. (As did a lot of teams with Cooper Kupp rostered).
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Ultimately, we weren't able to identify a winning formula for both you and yahoo picking a player that hits their projection. For WRs, a lot of the projection depended on their QB staying healthy and making the projections themselves. So, for Cooper Kupp to blast off, it took a great year from Matt Stafford, a below average run game, and a focus on Cooper due to injuries and/or scheme.
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Why you shouldn't draft a QB in rounds 1-3, or should you?
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Now let's look at the strategy of not drafting a QB in the first 3+ rounds (which is what the "experts" tell us to do, or not to do, and then our fantasy league members scoff at us for early QB picks: "amateur", "rookie"). But is waiting on a QB really the right strategy?
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Well, if you drafted Cooper Kupp last year, then you're a genius and you don't need this tip...but for the rest of us who missed on Coop, take note that the next best fantasy scorer was a QB: yep, Josh Allen at 417.58 points, or 24.56pts if he played all 17 games (hardly anyone did though).
The next best player after Josh Allen (including QBs and everyone else) was another QB, Justin Herbert at 395.76 or 23.28pts per game (across 17gms). Herbert was followed by Tom Brady (387pts) and then Patrick Mahomes (375). That's some big weekly points in the top end QBs. But, because that's four top end QBs we just identified with not a lot of per game separation, the feeling is that you can wait and these or similar guys will still be there....
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After the top 5 players are gone (1 WR, 4 QBs), the next top scorer of 2021 was Jonathan Taylor who came in at 373pts, followed by a sizeable drop to the next best scoring player (Matt Stafford with 347 pts).
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If you draft 1-10, you're considering between the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Austin Ekeler, Deebo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Mark Andrews, Najee Harris, Tyreek Hill (which were the top 6 scoring position players in 2021) and maybe even CMC... but what if you don't get those guys? What do you do at 11, 12 or even 13 or 14?
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There were four QBs that averaged more than 22 points a game. The 5th scoring QB (Matt Stafford) still averaged 20 pts per game. But the drop starts to become more substantial after about the 10th QB (at 18pts or less a game).
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So, what does this mean? Well, it appears to mean that you don't want the 10th or later QB taken. But, if you're in a 1 QB league, with 10-12 teams, you can afford to wait till QBs start flying off the board (and if a team picking #11 or #12 takes a with their wrap around pick in the 2nd round, you can say "tsk tsk", but what they're really doing is messing up your strategy of no one taking a QB until you're ready to take a QB in round 3/4/5).
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For teams in snake drafts drafting 13/14/15/16...can they really afford to wait 20+ more picks to take a QB? (20+ picks after their round 2 selection?) Well, if they do, they may end up with a Derek Carr or worse type QB (ok, sure not that bad) but you are projected to average 16 pts a game and will face a Josh Allen or other top 5 QBs averaging 20-24.5 pts a game making you down 4-8.5pts before anyone else plays. And is the one position player you would have gotten (in the 3rd/4th/5th round) over taking a Josh Allen going to make up your 4-8.5pts per week? Well, let's see.
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The top 16 position players in 2021 scored 259pts or better (15pts/game or more), while the top 25 each scored 241 pts or better (14 pts a game). So, teams drafting in 12 team leagues all should have 2 top 25 guys after 2 rounds. But, the top 10 position players separated themselves from the rest, while 11-25 are fairly close in weekly scoring.
As we move into round 3, and we make our way through the top 50 position players (rounds 3 & 4 in a 12 team draft), we work all the way down to 200 season long points (12pts/game). And, towards the low end (40-50) we're talking players projected to fare only marginally or factionally better than the last.
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This is where picks 1-7 have the advantage. Those first six picks go position player, for sure, in round 1. Then, the last 6 picks of round 1 are (likely) 6 position players. When round 2 begins, pick 12 has the wrap around and the 13th best player available is still scoring 15 pts a game (and likely projected to score 1.5x that, knowing the over projections yahoo will give us). And, if pick 12 went RB, they probably go WR for pick 2.1. Same goes for pick 2.2 (RB/WR). By pick 2.4 we're still in the top 16 position players (15 pts a game) and hard to take a QB instead (even though you know there's one that could score 24.5 a game). but the top 16 position players are hard to replace and there are 4 top end QBs, maybe 5. So then pick 2.5 is up (this was the 7th pick of Round 1). At this point, the team with the 7th pick (originally) probably sticks to the plan of a position player. Next up is 2.6 (the original 6th pick). My feeling is that nobody picks a QB until someone else does then they start coming off fast (since the top 4 are considerably better and getting a top 10 QB is almost necessary). That means that the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th picks probably use their 3rd round picks for a QB, not leaving it to chance in the 4th round (plus, at this point, at picks 25-30 you're looking at actual points scored of under 14 a game). So, does 24.5 sound a lot better than 16 (at the QB position), especially when there are plenty of the 10-14 point scoring WR/RB/TE variety in rounds 4 and beyond).
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So there you have it. 12 team leagues probably wait until round 3 to take a QB ("experts" want you to wait until they draft a QB though), while 14 and 16 team leagues may rightfully see QBs coming off beginning at the end of round 2, or beginning of round 3. And 2 QB leagues (even if one QB is a flex) may see QBs coming off as early as the 1st.